It is now almost five months since Russia began a Special Military Operation in Ukraine as a necessary counter action to disrupt what was soon after (like days) to be an all-out offensive by Ukraine forces on the territory of the Donbass republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. I repeat it is not a war. A war would have been finished long ago, with not much being left of Ukraine. But the special operation is achieving the same results, albeit in slow motion due to the extra care required for the safety of the civilian population (which in a war would take a lower priority to the destruction of the enemy).
Despite the costly intrusions of the west (costly to themselves and Ukraine but less so to Russia), everything seems to be going Russia’s way. Every day the Russian allies are advancing, taking back Donbass territory with minimal losses to their forces. The opposite it true of the forces of the west, which for reasons of subterfuge are called ‘Ukrainian’. Those forces are suffering tremendous losses in both manpower and equipment, depleting Ukraine of the flower of its manhood and the west of its arsenal of weapons and munitions and also the idiot element of its para-military ‘aid workers’.
That image will persist for maybe another 2-3 weeks, by which time, what was recently intimated by Serbia’s President Vucic will come into play. Russia and allies will have driven all western forces out of the Donbass region and be poised to march west on to the Dniepr river and north to the Kharkiv region, with nothing much left of the Ukraine forces standing in the way to stop them.
It is at that point where the west will be called upon to make a decision. And I mean ‘the west’ because the Ukraine government has no say in the matter (even if it is still a functioning entity).
Serbian President Vucic has revealed (as someone, a friend or ally, who has been taken into the confidence of President Putin [as I understand it]), perhaps purposefully as a voice also within the western camp, that this will be when the first overture by Russia to the west, on conditions of Russia’s choosing, for providing an end to the affair. This is not just Vucic speaking. Anyone who has been paying attention could have seen a point such as this coming. Russia is not a warmongering nation. Russia desires peace, but must also have security. And that is not optional, but also not possible as long as NATO exists and there is a US presence in Europe.
So, the point has been set, but this will not be the end. The west has not been humiliated enough yet for such a concession to be made. They are not ready for full capitulation.
It will however be a significant moment in history. A moment, of which the west will not understand the importance. And they will dismiss it out of hand (perhaps trying to haggle for better terms – which Russia will in turn, and hopefully instantly, dismiss). And that will lead to what Vucic has sort of described as (and others have paraphrased to be) ‘hell on earth’. How so? Well, Russia will make no compromises, she can’t afford to, and will have no further restraint on the need to protect civilians (all Russian speaking or leaning people in the region being already behind the Russian lines). And so Russia will be free to turn this operation into a full scale war. Which for the west will seem like the closest thing to ‘hell on earth’.
So, depleted as it is now, of munitions, and the Russians having already easily beaten a NATO trained army equal in size and strength of any force the west can field in Europe – having utilised only something less than a tenth of its military forces, and that tenth comprised mainly of units of its National Guard (on continual rotation, so all of them [I presume] now have good battle experience), the western NATO forces will, in short order, fold just as easily as the NATO supplemented Ukraine army already has.
And at some stage, perhaps many stages in that process, Russia will pause to offer ever stricter terms to the west. The first offer, I suggest (after the initial ego-driven refusal) will be when the Russian allies (and they may have more than the two Donbass republics by then – not that additional forces would be needed) reach the western borders of Ukraine. At which point it will be Russia who decides the fate of Ukraine and what territory, if any, it may still retain and who gets and under what conditions, the remainder of that country, in which Russia has no interest, is dispersed.
If necessary, this will go on until NATO no longer exists and there is not a single US soldier to be found anywhere in Europe (except in POW camps). At that point, should the west be dumb enough to let it go that far without capitulation, there will be no need for conditional surrender terms to be agreed. Russia will have secured its western borders by ensuring no further European military insurgencies across its borders, are possible, ever. And the US will be too weak to offer violence anywhere for generations, if ever.
There are numerous other possible endings of course. That cannot be denied. But none of them favour the west or a western dominated planet. But at least there will still be a west, to suffer and to learn that exceptionalism was just a figment of the imagination. Unless, of course, they suicidally trigger their own demise with the overblown concept of nuclear apocalypse. Russia also has an answer to that. The US, none.
There will still be a Russia and a Eurasia, and most of the southern hemisphere will still, all although seriously damaged and suffering, remain habitable in places, for some. But there will be no North America fit to live in.
This is my vision, and, at the speed events are now unfolding, I may still be around to witness it happen.
In all seriousness, the chances of some better result are quite slim. Madness has engulfed our world, centred in the crazed and deluded minds of those who make decisions for the western nations.
It could be, and let’s hope I don’t have to say “It could have been”, so very, very, different.
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