I didn’t say much after the Putin – Biden meeting on Tuesday – there wasn’t much to say.
On the face of it, any potential war can has been kicked down the road a few months so that Ol’ Joe can have a quiet Christmas and the Beijing Winter Olympics can proceed with minimal interference in February (albeit diplomatically snubbed by Joe’s team) and at this stage still with the appearance of US athletes.
But of course it is not all up to Ol’ Joe and his mates who have, in a blue funk, acceded to all Russia’s requests that are likely to be acceded to and also made some empty threats which will (in any rational person’s reckoning) be of no consequence to Russia – even if applied (which they won’t be – they are just face-savers). In addition, Ol’ Joe has carefully insured, without lifting a single finger, that Kiev’s mad dog nazi cadres – already straining at the leash – will almost certainly take the news that they are not getting NATO accreditation for at least a decade as being sufficient cause to break that leash and act out their own suicidal extremes against the Donbass republics. Why a decade delay, you might ask? Well, and this is only my personal opinion, Ol’ Joe has been advised that the US needs at least another decade to catch up in the arms war to have even an even chance against Russia and/or China in a real shooting war. He is an utter fool if he believes that, or the associated fact that Russia and China will ever allow that to happen – in any number of decades where any global powers retain the power to develop weapons which could pose such a threat. This will not end, of course, unless and until the US accepts that simple fact and begins to live accordingly – abandoning its now flimsy dreams of global supremacy.
So, what am I saying? I’m saying there will be no great powers war at any foreseeable point in the future (barring accidents) – and I don’t think that is simply wishful thinking. Russia and China have cool heads. There is no concern from those quarters. They live in the knowledge they can handle anything those who perceive them as opponents could possibly throw at them. The unknown factor is the US/NATO consortium of clowns. They cannot even be termed to be rational people. But there is a fear factor holding them back. The fear of losing – everything. Which only leaves the out and out crazies of the world to stir the pot – and Israel is I think too far removed from that location to get involved.
However, the Ukraine of Kiev, is unfortunately also stuffed full of such crazies. So, what may happen is that they decide to act out some mental fantasy where they attempt to extinguish (in their own minds) the good people of the Donbass (with or without the sanction of their backers). In that case their backers would cut them loose, not offering any kind of support, and see them cut to pieces, as an act of inevitability, with minimal losses to Donbass defence forces, supported by the might of Russian military force from their own territory. Russia would have no need to invade Ukraine. With its stand-off munitions they can annihilate the Ukie nazis where they stand. And then it would all be over other than the collecting and burying of the pieces, or what could be found of them. There would be no retaliation by the West. Lots of bloviating of course, but that is all.
And that is why I think, if there is to be a war, it could start and all be over in time for everyone left standing to go home for Christmas. There will be no nuclear exchange. Not this time. Even the US retains enough rationality to see that Ukraine is not of sufficient interest to them to force such an issue – and never will be.
So, that is my two-pennyworth of opinion. As good a value as you will get anywhere, I reckon.
Where will this leave Ukraine, the only possible loser in these events? Will it become a no-man’s land? Abandoned by all? It will be of no further use to Europe or NATO. They wouldn’t dare to enter that territory – at least for another decade, and likely, ever. Russia has no interest in rejuvenating the corpse, but has enough heart, I believe, to at least – with UN assistance – provide humanitarian aid to the long-suffering genuine people of that region, who may in time come to realise who their real friends were and are.