The comma in my chosen title (and the importance of a title should not be underestimated) is deliberately and strategically placed so as to give the true intent and meaning. I hope the reader can see that.
I am seeing and reading rather more about Henry Kissinger, a ‘Great’ of the previous century (no matter your opinions on his views) and still operating at the highest levels within the circles of diminishing power. Most recently he has resurfaced publically in commentary on the Ukraine conflict.
I was reminded of an earlier Kissinger quote, which has sat quietly in a corner of my favourite quotes list as seen in the right margin of all my blog posts (on some devices), the intrinsic truth of which I have always recognised though treated derisorily as coming from the known position and intent of that person, within the global thought bubble of the west.
Who controls the food supply controls the people; who controls the energy can control whole continents; who controls money can control the world.Henry Kissinger
The truth of that saying, in all of its parts, has recently been thrown into stark relief to the astonishment of the whole world, with the subtle but undeniable recognition that since the time it was first broadcast, the hands on the control levers of such global matters have changed to new masters of destiny. Namely, Russia. A concept still unfolding, and totally misunderstood by even the ‘Greats’ of the past. What hope then, for the dullards of the present?
A position which will be realised by any open minded viewer the longer into the video below, from May 2022, they can force themselves to watch. It is kind of like wading through treacle – an uncrystallised syrup of sugar. The west, even its Greats, has no idea what is going on today or the immense changes that have been wrought in the power vacuum left open by the west’s own narcissistic self-glamourisation which has seen their social structures weakened and impoverished, their capacities for meaningful innovation and production either laid derelict or shipped overseas, and their economies circling the drain hole of no return.
Kissinger’s latest pronouncement on Ukraine (more recent than that video) has outraged both western pundits and Ukraine’s leaders alike, by suggesting that Ukraine needs to be prepared to give up some territory in order to gain a peace agreement with Russia.
Let me make this clear…
There will be no peace agreement – at least not any time soon. Russia has not nearly completed its stated goals and is in fact no nearer to obtaining the security demands it made earlier in the year than when it was forced by Ukraine war plans to preempt them by starting first its own strategic plan that will surely bring about the realisation of those clearly stated goals. Such realisation still has a long road to travel, but reaching the end of that road carries a certainty of achievement.
Peace agreement or not, Ukraine is in no position to make demands on Russia of any kind. Russia alone will decide when enough is enough and which parts of the pre-February 2022 Ukraine will remain part of that structure, if any. The opinions of the current Ukraine government, nor any of its backers, will be sought in the formulation of those decisions. Nor will the structure of any remaining Ukraine government, its ties with or allegiances to any other external entity, or its security arrangements.
It is a mistake to think that Russia has in any way been weakened by this conflict. Such thought is a western delusion. Russia has in fact been strengthened over the past months and now has the world’s strongest currency, brightest prospects for prosperity, a higher degree of self-sufficiency than any other nation, and perhaps of greater importance in the short term – a still intact and untouched military, backed by the world’s most advance weapons (for which this conflict has been a most advantageous testing ground). All or much of this has been paid for – or in modern parlance ‘subscribed to’ – by the west through its regime of unjustified sanctions which have, equal in measure and opposite in effect, impoverished through economic inflation their own nations. Driving them to a point of social and economic collapse.
Just to be clear, and this is a basic fact which has not yet entered into the thinking of western pundits, the commitment by Russia to this special operation has been the carefully calculated minimum necessary to achieve the initial goals – that of protecting and liberating the Donbass republics. Still no clear, trustable, numbers as to the size of the Russian force are to be found anywhere but, based on the number of independent battle groups involved (and this is what I have read, not just from my own head) there can never have been more than some 80,000 troops on the ground. All volunteers from the Russian National Guard units. It is not even clear whether that includes the militia units of the DPR/LPR forces, which in any case would only number in the low tens of thousands I expect. So, at the upper end of things there could not be more than 100,000 allied troops operating there. That would not I think include any air units but would most likely include most artillery forces (perhaps not the most advanced weapons).
So, with that in mind, and these forces facing a 200,000 strong (some estimates say 400,000) Ukraine force (augmented by foreign fighters – terrorists in the main) – about half of which (the more effective half) were already fighting, while pretending otherwise, from fortified positions in western regions of Donbass for the past eight years, the Russian allies have done a truly remarkable job of reducing the fortifications, air defense capabilities, and military command structure of the Ukraine military and of driving them steadily backward out of Donbass. A task that is now almost completed. But that, let it be said, is only the start. It in no way accomplishes the stated Russian goals.
So, and I am not just pointing to Henry Kissinger here but the whole of western think-tank-dom and noodle-headed statesmen (since they are, in the main, men or caricatures of same), when I say the west has no idea, not even a clue – it being way outside their tightly boxed-in worldview – as to what Russia will do next, and before the Russians themselves will even consider any kind of peace settlement. They may engage in ‘peace talks’ for effect, but never with any agreement. Zelensky, and others, may well have entirely left the scene before that point is reached. And the west (combined or not) will have no say in the determination of that time. They are likely to be busily engaged elsewhere by then. Not least in looking to the precarious viability of their own seats of power.
I could go on, and on, and on… but as another of my favourite quotes says…
Talk does not cook the rice.Chinese Proverb
What follows, I added some hours later, as I read a remarkable piece by Batiushka for the Saker blog. I will repeat one sentence which gives power to what I said above. The link follows. I think my readers will enjoy that.
“Technologically and economically, Russia has become independent. And militarily Russia has become stronger than the combined NATO West. The Patriots are in power and the cack-handed West and its sanctions are making Russia great again.”