Is It End Of Phase 1 Yet?

At long last it begins to appear the first phase of Russia’s ‘Special Military Operation’ in Ukraine is drawing to a close (although I have said that a couple of times before) – if not just yet, then very soon.

After Sunday’s offered surrender message, which most of the trapped Ukie forces – Mainly Azov elements, assorted mercenaries, and an estimated 100 NATO ‘guides’ (for want of a better description) chose to ignore, there are reports (though no images yet that I could find) of smoke plumes from missile bombardments from the only remaining bunkers left to the Ukraine side. Surrender or be destroyed they were told, and Russia is in no mood for compromises. So, destroyed is what they now probably are. In any case Mariupol city is already getting back to normal outside of this very limited combat area – many hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers having already surrendered over recent days. That will free up a stated 10,000 more Russian, actually hardened Chechen troops, to move elsewhere.

And then, the larger Donbass cauldron, in which up to 80-90,000 Ukraine troops, peppered with more Azov Nazi stiffening units, have been trapped now for the full period of conflict. The initial estimate was some 50,000 troops but they have been reinforced from western region based units (they can get in but not out) awaiting their eventual fate. Once the Russian units which pulled away from the capital Kiev have move to close off the cauldron (which has been held in place mostly by DPR/LPR troops from the south and east) they will be given the same surrender or die invitation. Many have already surrendered (when safe to do so without being shot by the Azov Nazis), and the report I share below tells of how the weaker western reinforcements are laying down their arms at the first sign of battle. At that point the Donbass will have been completely liberated and with resupply for all the necessities of life and conflict having been denied for so long now, there may be little fight left in them to prolong the issue.

I will share a couple of paragraphs from the report by Nightvision for the Saker blog, which confirms what I have just said. Nightvision goes on after these paragraphs, and I am not going to list it here, to provide a large number of links to videos confirming the position.

Expect to soon hear that phase 2 has begun in earnest – or phase 3 if you were following what I said some time ago. Which was that I called phase 2 as when the Russians began to use their long-range pinpoint missile weapons to hit any target they chose, anywhere up to the Polish border i.e. anywhere in Ukraine. That deserved a phase number all of its own to my mind – and it certainly shook the west on its heels.

In the now intense battles in the north (near Izyum), our side reports that the AFU is throwing everything they have into the battle, not only multiple new planes shot down which means they’re desperately using the last of their aviation, but entire units have been completely wiped out and captured. And from the new captures it’s discovered many of them are from cities in the far West which means these are already the mobilized reserves sent to stop the Russian advances.

Also reports state many of the newly captured are of extremely low morale as they are no longer putting up much resistance. One report said when previously they would attempt to fight out of encirclement, now they are laying down their arms immediately at the first sign of encirclement and not even bothering to fight. There are so many new surrenders I can barely even keep track anymore and post all the videos, and this includes many new graphic ones of destroyed units.

‘Sitrep: Operation Z’ – By Nightvision for the Saker Blog

Read the whole Sitrep Z on the Saker blog. The first part of this particular episode deals with the Moscow flagship incident, which is mostly speculation at this stage (admitted by the author), so you could skip that part and begin where a CNN headline talks about Ukraine’s munitions shortages – and the west’s inability to keep up supply.

Phase 2 is now on the horizon. It may have already begun.

The US/NATO are said to have trained up to 400,000 Ukrainian troops since 2014. I will repeat, because I think too few people actually realise, that the original Ukraine army in 2014 was virtually wiped out, captured or surrendered (to take shelter in Russia) – turning over much of ite equipment, including tanks and artillery – by the amateur militias of what is now the Donbass independent republics. The best units of the new western trained Ukraine army – perhaps 100-120,000 troops – plus many of the militarised Nazi units, were sent to the Donbass front, causing trouble there since 2014 (and deliberately precipitating the current conflict). Which means that there are possibly up to 250,000 remaining troops which would mostly be situated west of Kiev, around Odessa in the south, or garrisoning major cities not yet taken in the north-east. Most of these will be conscripts from later drafts and are unlikely to put up much of a show in the face of still only around 80,000 Russian troops (assuming DPR/LPR units remain behind during the second phase to protect and rebuild their own fledgling nation republics, newly recognised by Russia.

What Russia has achieved so far in this conflict with such a small force of non-regular (not sure how else to describe it) troops, is nothing short of a magnificent and stunning military achievement. Imagine what their regular, much larger, highly trained and better equipped units could do. And people complain that this has taken too long?

And why did Russia choose to take this path – holding back its regular army? I think, and of course I am only guessing, it is because the west has so far made no play into the conflict – and also to make a point. I think they may never need to call on those troops. The west knows full well that they stand no chance in a face-to-face war with Russia. Oh, they may play around at the edges – perhaps even taking a part in the sinking of cruiser Moscow – but nothing that can be laid at their door but could be passed off as being a Ukraine action – to which, desperate for some kind of victory, has already (though falsely) admitted. The US dare not take on Russia in battle. And NATO now talks of expanding playing in the Pacific? What a joke!

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