I want to get back to the story on Taiwan I mentioned a couple of days ago because it continues to develop and will feature large in future geopolitical circles.
Let’s settle basic points of fact to start with. Taiwan is not an independent nation and never will be no matter how hard the US tries to ignore its own stated position on the matter and persist in its indiscriminate interference in Chinese affairs, dragging other nations, including my own – Australia – into what is a fruitless and desperate attempt to retain or regain a modicum of its lost global influence. Taiwan belongs to China. Always has, always will. The fact that it was taken over by a defeated, dissenting, so-called ‘Nationalist’ rabble last century, which has developed certain dreams of independence, makes no difference to the basic fact of Chinese ownership and sovereignty of that island and its surrounds.
There is another basic fact to consider. Having given the islanders sufficient time to cool their heels and to reconsider their errant position, returning to accepting their part as citizens of China living in a region of the Chinese nation – which they have obstinately not done – China is now intent on re-establishing its national control over the island. There is an inevitability to that happening at some stage in the near future. Particularly since the island leadership is intensifying its attempts to gain international acceptance of its independence and the interference of the US in feeding that push.
A Chinese military intervention to recover Taiwan from its dissenting citizens and to return control to the Chinese government is now inevitable, simply as a result of that situation. The world in general could have no argument with such action since there is nothing illegal about national reunification – and that is the UN position on the matter, having never recognised Taiwanese independence. This could not be classified as an invasion of Taiwan. How can a country invade its own territory? Only an irrational mind would consider it so. Of course there are nations governed by irrational minds, so objections to such action by China, when ir happens, are to be expected. China, it must be stated, has all the power it needs to carry out such a recovery operation any time of its own choosing, and to also hold no fear of external threats to its success, from any direction they may come. There is also no doubt that Taiwan will be successfully rejoined with mainland China. The only question is, when?
The events which have brought this to the forefront of regional news just now, are numerous and well reported …well, ‘reported’ anyway. Mostly with the usual distortions of Western influence. The most recent such events are worthy of note though. Discounting the ‘AUKUS triad’ nonsensical move, effectively splitting an already fractured and floundering NATO alliance and replacing (though that will not be admitted) the ill-considered ‘Quad’ effort, the actually worthy events I am talking about are the recently increased Chinese military air traffic over Taiwan.
Let me briefly remind, and then direct you to a recent Global Times article. Over recent days, China has increasingly sent large number of military aircraft to overfly so-called Taiwanese airspace. There is nothing illegal or even aggressive in this. As I hinted before, how can you aggressively overfly your own national airspace? The first time this was done, 38 aircraft were involved. The second day, 39 aircraft. And, on October 3, a total of 56 military sorties were flown. As far as I am aware, there have so far been no further reports of other activity.
I am going to make no comments on these Chinese excursions other than to say they may simply be in response to the presence and maneuvering of Western naval vessels in the area, but given the increasingly tense background of the Taiwanese situation, who knows?
Could China be getting ready to make a move? With the imminent staging of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games due to take place in February 2022 – which is now only four months away – I doubt there are any plans for immediately launching such a disruptive move. A move that could, actually would, disastrously affect the success of those international games, given the Chinese desire for peaceful recognition of its national achievements on such a stage. But if there are hostile moves to, say, boycott or otherwise denigrate China’s right to host a successful event, then I would say all bets are off.
This is definitely a ‘watch this space’ thing for interested observers.