The Real Story Behind Population Decline Expectations

Whether you agree with the notion that there are too many people in the world, or not, the fact remains that there are too many people in the world.

And this is a situation which is will soon, as in the next few years (not decades) become one of the pressing problems that will determine the chance and opportunity for humanity to progress to any sort of viable future, or indeed to have a future.

So, it is, or should be, one area, one of several areas actually, in which we invest a considerable portion of our research effort to understand the nature of our risk. We don’t, on a societal level, appear to be doing any such thing, instead taking a ‘suck it and see’ approach – which augurs not well for our wellbeing, let alone our continued existence.

The subject has been one of my major fields of thought for some time. But I am no expert and I don’t tend to worry much about the future – especially since I have come to the conclusion that there is none. Which makes my studies simply a matter of personal interest. Basically, I just want to know what’s happening.

And so, I took a snapshot of the Worldometers population counters at midnight June 30 as it stood in Australia at the time. Actually I was about 20 minutes late. Life doesn’t always cooperate to allow us to sit and wait for seconds to go by, and the exact count can be calculated from the births/deaths figures for the new day anyway.

I was only interested in a ballpark estimate anyway, so I could talk about ‘billions’. So, 7.88 billion at this point, near as dammit, and adding another 40.8 million to end of December [40.8, not 40.3, because there are two extra days in the second half of the year, which adds an extra half million to the count. The reasons for that are that the number of 31 day months are evenly spread – two in each half – but there is no February equivalent in the second half (such is the inexactitude of our thinking, based on shaky foundations formed in the past)]. This results in a count of 7.92 billion at year end, near as dammit, as I said it would be last year. Add another 80+ million in 2022 and “Whammo!”, there’s the full 8 billion at end of that year – as I have also been saying for several years now.

I would add my normal rider about these figures being subject to unforeseen events which may distort the picture but, for the first time ever, I now have some concrete (not yet set of course) evidence as to what is behind the global authority’s false claims of declining population levels which goes some way – not all the way – to establishing what is really going on. The unexpected, of course, still may have a part to play. And maybe not an inconsiderable part.

If you care to read on, I will explain. But on the way, I want to lay down a couple of indicators regarding Births and Deaths, the main contributing factors to population level.

I don’t know how long the website I am about to introduce, has been running, but I only stumbled upon it yesterday. The site is ‘Our World in Data’. It contains a great many interesting topics but the one I am most interested in for current purposes is, naturally, the one concerning births and deaths – ‘How many people die and how many are born each year?’, and that will form the basis of what I am about to say. Now, while I have not spent too much time investigating this site’s credentials, it has the feel of genuine integrity and does not appear to be pushing any particular agenda – although it does present certain facts which might alarm and dismay certain governments or those with ulterior motives for humanity’s future. They wouldn’t want this sort of data to become too widely known. It is your job, should you accept the task, to make sure that it is.

You can read for yourself what they say on births and deaths but there are a few things I want to particularly open up as being very relevant to any discussion on world population. Incidentally, if you disagree with the first statement I made at the head of this piece, you may (if you are still reading – and why are you still doing that?) want to take a look at this associated note – ‘How has world population growth changed over time?’

Births first, and bear in mind this data has not been updated since third quarter 2019 – which was before COVID-19. Whether that is as a result of COVID disruption or it represents the normal delay in satisfaction that all data has been made available, I am not sure. It may be a bit of both.

Let me say here, that all following images are downloaded from the freely available imagery of the Our World in Data website – for which use I thank and acknowledge them and their fine work. It is not easy compiling statistics and making sense of them.

Here is the latest picture of historic actuals and future forecast up to mid-century. As you can see, the annual birthrate has been hovering around 140 million for some years now, and that is projected to continue until at least mid-century without much fluctuation.

Two things I want to say.

This line, including over the projected years, while steady in numbers, is actually a falling birth-rate not a steady one. This is because we are, and have been for quite a few decades now, adding around 40 million new women of child-bearing age, per year, to the current population. Over three decades (which possibly represents the range of years a woman might give birth to a child) that amounts to an extra 1.2 billion potential mothers since prior to that 30 year period (minus deaths of mothers over the same time of course). Based on that you would think there would be something of an upsurge in births – not a steady-state situation, which is what we have in terms of numbers. So, the better education and increased affluence globally, as has been stated was the answer to the problem, has , after all, had some effect – not in terms of numbers (which in the final analysis is what counts) but in birth-rate decrease. It is obviously not enough but, given enough time it might produce better results. Not that we have the time to find out.

Take a look at the second image, projecting to end of century.

There is a decline in actual births expected over that second 50 year period to around 125 million new births a year. That is not much really and would be expected to produce another 1.5 billion potential mothers, and 3 billion folks in total, over that period.

So, the second thing I wanted to say is this. If population decline is to be effected, it is not going to come from decreased births. A decreased birth-rate yes, we already have that right now, but as I have maintained a long time now, it is actual numbers, not rates, that are important – in fact, imperative – over a given and restricted time period and with such a dilemma as we are facing.

Let’s look at deaths. A two-stage look again, because comparing historical actuals and then bringing in future projections is a very tricky business, and one always fraught with dangers. Especially on this subject.

This time I am taking an initial look only to 2025 to see the historical perspective, and it can be seen that in the period since 1950 there has been no great change, either up or down in the numbers. Always hovering around 50 million annual deaths, but for the first two decades of this century possibly rising to set a new trend. Current figures showing just under 60 million per year. This is, remember, pre-COVID.

However, COVID appears to have made absolutely no difference to either birth or death rates. The first image from Worldometers showed 29 million deaths to mid-year, or projecting forward, around the expected 60 million annual total for year-end. A total population increase of 81 million given for 2020 by Worldometers (the supposed first year of COVID ravagement), which was the expected level (COVID or no COVID) – the numbers slowly declining from a 2015 top of 84 million – as a result of the slow creep of rising deaths.

The good times, you will notice (following the recovery from WW2) were in the ’70s and ’80s of last century – before the induced societal rot of global capitalism began to take effect, to slowly increase the number of deaths, exacerbated by the adventurism of certain Western nations.

But is this rising death rate (non-COVID related let me stress) going to bridge the gap between the more or less stable global birthrate? Well, the prevailing thinking is obviously that it is. Is that a little frightening? Let’s take a look.

Wow!! 121 million deaths per year, more than twice the current rate, is the projection. How? What? Why?

OK, confession. I’m feigning surprise here. It is exactly what I expected. Well, not exactly, I’m thinking something much more severe – potentially – because even a doubling of the death rate will not even stop positive population growth.

121 million deaths is still lower than 125 million births. Of course many of those births may also be counted among the deaths as the survival rate of infants in any of the scenarios I’m thinking of become real. And the scenarios I am thinking of (which would actually be a solution to the problem – perhaps the only real solution – by actually removing the population entirely, more or less) would produce potential deaths in the billion range for a few years and then tail off to virtually nothing as no-one much is left to die. Let me say that I have no wish to draw that graph.

I will simply say that there are those who are already aware of these things and in fact have incorporated them into their own plans to mold the future of humanity to their own purposes. It is clear that they won’t need most of us to still be around to need taking care of when those plans are effected. The solution is exactly what it appears to be.

There is much more that I could say but I think I have said enough here, and my stamina is now ebbing. So, take this information and run with it, or not, as whatever is your personal inclination. My task is done – and I feel no need to explain the details.

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