On July 29, 2020 there were 17 million cumulative registered cases of COVID-19 around the world. Take a few deep breaths and just 4 days later there are now 18 million cases. Is that concerning? How many million would there need to be for the situation to become concerning in the west (which is where about one third of those cases have occurred), or indeed elsewhere?
We are approaching 700,000 deaths, which I loosely predicted way back on May 20, 2020 when there were just over 3 million cases and a little over 300,000 deaths – quote:
“One thing is virtually certain now, even with a current 8.6% death rate, there will be half a million COVID-19 deaths well before the end of June. And we could be looking at 600-700,000 deaths several weeks, not months, after that (though that is not as yet baked in).”
Well, the deaths didn’t reach half a million by the end of June as I anticipated – the reason for which is a question that still needs to be answered – and while it may be more than a month it is certainly less than two to have reached the 700,000 mark.
With the disparity between cases and deaths since I made those remarks in May the death rate has fallen now to a little under 5% (Worldometers is still showing 6% but that is an unadjusted rate based solely on closed cases). That needs to be explained but there are several obvious reasons, which I don’t have time to explore here, and which render my detailed tracking of death rates still no longer something worth doing.
I will repeat my earlier remark. At what point does this pandemic cease to be just that and turn into what is likely to be a devastator of national and global economies and perhaps (I thought of using a stronger word) an ender of globalism? You think that is already the case? Let me tell you, you haven’t seen anything yet of the level of pandemonium to come.