It had to come. The signs have been there for a while. And even from the start we have known the result of the conflict in Ukraine. The difference now is that it shows. The combined west and their media show-band are going to have a hard time explaining this and also covering their embarrassment over falsified reporting.
I wrote those words myself on December 21, 2022 (three weeks ago now, in this unfinished and previously unpublished piece)
I had to leave it there since the expected collapse of Ukraine forces did not materialize – at least to the extent of what I wanted to say next – although there were definitely already clear signs at that time providing pointers this would happen very soon.
Well, three weeks later, there is little doubting that what we are witnessing is the beginning of such a collapse. Ukraine has simply nothing left in the tank (the fuel tank, that is) to carry on a war of attrition as they have been – supplemented by a large force of foreign mercenaries from around 50 countries and enough NATO contingents to declare this Russian Operation has turned into a Russia-NATO war. Actually it has not been Ukraine’s war of attrition but Russia’s. Ukraine has simply provided the ‘meat’ to be relentlessly and, it has to be said – foolishly, fed into the Russian grinder. Pushing them in hopeless waves against the solid walls of Russian defence. Yes, Russian forces have withdrawn from regions, towns and hamlets considered indefensible, but not once in the past ten months has a Ukraine/NATO force overcome or driven out a Russian force from anywhere. And in every case of withdrawal, Russia has made Ukraine to suffer huge losses in manpower and equipment for the privilege of occupation.
Counts of as high as half a million Ukraine soldiers (I can’t say ‘men’ because there have also been a large number of women in the Ukie ranks) have been processed through what has been termed the ‘Donbass meat-grinder’. That number, and my own personal view is that it is at least 400,000 irreplaceable lives (few of them will fight again, anywhere), represents pretty much the total count of the Ukraine military as it was back in Feb 2022. Without the huge influx of foolishly-interested (and badly informed) foreign volunteers and cohorts of disguised NATO war junkies, together with the continuous shanghai-ing of ambulatory (able to walk) Ukraine citizenry, there would now be no-one except the few best-kept fully-trained units to stand up in front of the now advancing Russians – who for the first time can now (having preserved the bulk of their originally committed forces, by superb tactics) begin to fight on a more or less numerically even basis against (let’s call them what they are) the opposing NATO forces.
Unsurprisingly, and also realistically, the Russians can still claim “We have not started anything yet”. That is all about to change. Russia has just about (to use an expression I heard recently) got all its duck lined up now. For what? For the start of something big, that’s what. NATO is about to get its comeuppance. At least that is my assessment. And I don’t think it is too far away. Nobody in their right mind (except perhaps the ‘Grand Old Duke of York’) would assemble and move ‘to and fro’ an army of upward of half a million soldiers and massive amounts of the gear of war, along the boundaries of a scene of conflict (albeit still on their own lands) without having some great, well planned, clearly intentioned, and fully provisioned purpose in mind. It is not a small thing to do that.
On top of that, one does not alter the command structure of an in-play operation (not by demoting or moving aside existing commanders, but…) by adding another overall tier of command on top of it and by spreading the responsibilities of an existing commander to a group for a more evenly shared load. One only does that under a specific circumstance. That being a large increase of the scheduled tasks. Something too big for one commander of a given level to manage alone. Some ‘thing’ that can no longer be termed a ‘Special Military Operation’. Something which can only be described as a full-fledged War!
All of those aspects I have just described, have now occurred. I have described elsewhere what I think will happen next, but that is in the future. I fully expect it to be the near future but I don’t know any more than you do on that, and I am not prepared to speculate further.
In the meantime, we can interest ourselves in our own lives and in making such preparations as we think fit for such contingencies as may arise. We can also study what has recently happened. I happen to have just read an excellent appraisal of the current situation around the Bakhmut and Soledar region of the former Ukraine (now formally Russian territory), in recent days. You might wish to look at that yourself.
‘How Ukraine suffered a humiliating defeat in Soledar after a relentless Russian assault’ – By Vladislav Ugolny, a Russian journalist based in Donetsk, for AZƏRBAYCAN 24. Well written and illustrated.
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