‘Nuclear strikes cannot be avoided – the logic of events in Ukraine leads to them anyway’ – NewsFront – 02.12.2022
I find this quite astonishing. Nothing of this kind is going to happen. And what kind of illogic (it’s not logic but the opposite of logic) points to such events anyway?
Ah! I know! It’s Western illogic. You will notice that all references in that piece (except the one to Mr Putin’s earlier wise saying) are from western sources. It is only the west that would contemplate such things, but the wishy-washy west, or even the madly desperate west, would never find the guts to bring it on. They don’t want to die, and pressing that button would surely bring about their death. Not so for Russia (or China – but we are not talking about China here, really, are we?).
Russia can afford to contemplate a first strike, if Russia thought it extremely likely they were about to be hit. Or they can afford a retaliatory strike – in a controlled (not rushed or emergency) manner. Simply because they possess the means to accomplish either of those things effectively ands still maintain their defensive umbrella – which I believe to be a guarantee that most of their valuable assets would survive. Whether Russia has the numbers today for that to be a comprehensive guarantee, I have no idea. I suspect they do.
The west on the other hand, possesses only an aging one-shot gun, the effectiveness of which is questionable in either a first strike or retaliatory role. In fact we can ignore the retaliatory aspect – there would be nothing left to fire if no first launch occurred. So the west must get in the first strike – if they are going to do anything at all. And it would be an empty gesture – because there would be no guarantee that any of those weapons would actually reach their target – either because of defective components or the excellent Russian defence capabilities.
What Mr Putin said on this, about something like ‘If a conflict is inevitable, strike first’, was said quite some time ago. And I believe it was necessary to make that known at that time because Russia was still building its arsenal of weapons. I also believe that, since that time, Russia has – or shortly will – achieve full readiness for any kind of assault against it. And I also believe it would be very foolish for any enemy to test that assertion. Also, any enemy that is not fully ready now – and let’s face it, there are none – will never be ready at any point in the future. It would also be very foolish for any enemy of Russia to take what is happening in Ukraine right now as any sign of Russian readiness for war.
What we are discussing is really a one-sided shooting match. Hence the claim that M.A.D. no longer exists. And that is why it can be almost unreservedly said that there will be no general nuclear war and, if by some slight chance there is, the result is already known. The west will disappear.
One more thing about the west. There is no western defensive capability against a Russian nuclear attack of any sort. Not just no ‘effective’ defensive capability but no defensive capability at all, whatsoever. So, what we are talking about here is a walkover. Looking at this from the other side, no western offensive nuclear-bearing weapon system is capable of penetrating the Russian defensive screen. Again, no matter which way it is viewed, it is still a walkover.
The only remaining question is what happens to nuclear weapons if hit in flight? I admit I have no idea about that. Do they fail to detonate? Do they detonate in flight? Do they detonate on hitting the ground (if not destroyed mid-air)? Those are very important questions I have not heard raised previously. Here’s what I think, for what it is worth…
If they fail to detonate (or if they are destroyed mid-air) the material will eventually land somewhere. If that should be in sea or ocean, that is bad, but may just be a case of ‘poor fish’. If they come down on land, that is a different kettle of fish (poor pun, sorry). Wherever it is there will be a spread of radioactive material. Clean-ups can be arranged – it’s been done before.
If a nuclear weapon detonates in mid-air following a hit on its flight vehicle, well, I assume that will be something like what is generally known as an EMP. Although I understand EMPs are not meant to be radioactive in nature or meant to spread dangerous levels of radioactivity but cause other disruptive effects on electrical circuits and communications technology. That might even be a good thing (not really). But at least it would not kill people except those dependent on electrical power for life-dependencies. But that is only for high-level detonations up in the high atmosphere. Mid to low level detonations of offensive nuclear weapons can be, I understand, even more destructive than ground explosions – putting them into the next category.
But the big one, what happens if downed weapons hit the ground and then detonate or do so at low altitudes? Well, you would not want to be in Europe, or North America in particular, since there would be no guarantee as to where those detonations may occur. And it could be anywhere on the flight path of the delivery vehicle. The effect would be more or less the same as if they landed at their targeted point. Not pleasant at all.
But, barring some outbreak of lunacy, we do not need to worry about such things. The best advice I can offer is to stop reading/listening/watching western news sources and, for goodness sake, Russian news sources stop giving such rubbish published space. It’s pure trash.