Extending my coverage of the Pelosi-Taiwan episode just this one more time, hopefully, more or less what I said in my previous post is now being enacted. China has shut down (blockaded) all external access to Taiwan island now, having completely surrounded it on all sides with Chinese military forces engaged in live-fire exercises which are a practice run for forced reunification should that prove necessary. There is nothing weak about drills which will see long-range live artillery fire cross the Taiwan straits for the first time and missiles will overfly the Taiwan landmass to reach designated areas to the east of the island. A veritable show of strength, as a warning against foreign intervention.
My guess is that all it would take now to see that inevitable eventuality enacted for real (since the necessary forces are already in place), would be a single further provocation from a stymied west or an uprising of the Chinese people on the island, accompanied by a request for assistance from the Chinese national government to overthrow the separationists seeking independence against the will of the majority of the population. Or something similar.
The Global Times has expressed this very clearly in the article yesterday proclaiming – “PLA drills around Taiwan continue to ‘rehearse reunification operation’ after Pelosi’s visit, ‘exercises blockading island to become routine'”, from which comes the image above and the particularly pertinent quote below…
Not intercepting Pelosi’s flight does not mean a failure of the PLA. On the contrary, the Chinese mainland chose to avoid an incident that could trigger a World War III but instead to take Pelosi’s Taiwan visit as a chance to push forward the progress of reunification, starting with the island-blockading, combat-rehearsing drills that could become routine, analysts said.Global Times – August 03, 2022