No-one has so far produced a current map of the conflict zone today [Correction: See end of this piece] but the Saker blog has a very interesting appraisal of what Andrei Raevsky has termed ‘Phase 2’ of the operation. I am not going to explain all the details here, you will need to read it for yourself. But I will give the few pointers which follow, and also say that I find little if anything in Saker’s piece that I would disagree with – or disagree with Russia on if that is the way they will operate from now.
‘Day 11 – Putin’s last warning before beginning of the 2nd phase of the operation’ – The Saker blog
First of all, another negotiation meeting is scheduled for today (Monday, March 7) at which Russia will expect Ukraine to unconditionally surrender with guarantees on all Russia’s security demands, at which point the conflict would end. That will not happen of course, and even if it did, I don’t see that as a satisfactory conclusion. Neither Ukraine not its western backers can be trusted on any such agreement and a fresh conflict would quickly ensue after that became apparent. The alternative is that Ukraine ceases to exist as a nation, though neither the Saker nor president Putin say such in so many words. Putin’s actual statement on this was…
“If the leadership of Ukraine continues to do what they are doing, it will call into question the future of Ukrainian statehood, and that will be entirely their responsibility“.
…which is as near as dammit to what I said, without actually saying it.
Russia would in that case not stop until the whole of Ukraine is de-nazified, according to Raevsky (except the western bulge as I explained yesterday – which Poland and Rumania can sort out among themselves) with the rest presumably becoming part of Russia (though that isn’t stated either). In order to achieve this, Russia will go all out to make it happen, including if necessary the taking out of certain NATO intelligence centres which are known to be feeding what remains of Ukraine forces (now less than 25% of original strength) with information. And, if necessary, Russia will take on all-comers in a global conflict without fear, eve if it means going nuclear.
On the nuclear thing, that represents a known risk but as I said a short while ago and which Pepe Escobar reiterates today in the piece below, there is now no such thing as MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction). And that is goes some way towards explaining why the US and the west is unwilling to face Russia in any sort of conflict situation. They don’t want to see a USAD (United States Assured Destruction) or a UKAD or even a NATOAD – all of which are still on the cards. And every year that goes by, reduces the collateral damage that Russia could expect in such an event (as they produce more defensive power).
‘How Russia Will Counterpunch the U.S./EU Declaration of War’ – Pepe Escobar on the Saker blog
Day 11 map…
‘Map of military operations for March 6’ – Readovka News (thank you)
Leave a Reply