It’s nighttime here where I am, approaching mid-morning in Europe, Saturday, Feb 19, 2022. Is that set to be a date we will never forget? It’s beginning to look that way.
Kiev forces shelling of LDPR continues unabated. General mobilisations now in effect in LDPR. They should be able to hold against anything Kiev (or should that now be Lviv?) can throw at them. But they know, in fact are assured, that if they become about to be overrun, the might of Russia stands ready behind them – and can remove the problem from a distance, in a trice. Of course the Lviv forces also are aware of that. But mad dogs tend not to act rationally. Of course there are not that many mad dogs in the Ukraine forces. Most are simply green, untested troops who would prefer to be at home watching on tv. All of Ukraine’s original and more competent forces were disposed of back in 2014 by these same LDPR soldiers – who were at the time less organised separatists – and still they managed, unaided, to destroy the Ukie army. What hope does that (western trained) army now have?
Some clever Johnny or Volodymyr (CIA or Ukraine army) thought it would be a good idea to be the first to lob an artillery shell (presumably) onto Russian territory. I’m sure someone will wipe the smile from his face sometime later – if he still has a face.
Some bright spark (probably American or British) has suggested a behind the lines coastal invasion of the DPR. This is, if it takes place, a suicide mission. Of course western advisers have no interest in the lives of Ukrainian soldiery.
Well, folks, I think it will be far too difficult to step this back from here to some more peaceful situation again. And maybe it should not be stopped. Maybe it just needs to play out in whatever forms it morphs into. The air needs to be cleared. But I think that will not happen now until a large enough number of bodies are laid out to make someone say ‘enough’. And that will only happen if those bodies are largely Ukrainian and/or western soldiery – which is, in any case, the only possible outcome. There can be only one victor here, and that is the Donbass Republics of the LDPR, backed by Russia.
Any western losses, including the tremendous loss of face that will follow from this, are entirely their own fault. No-one else’s.
I don’t think I will be saying more tonight but the next 12 hours or so are likely to throw up any number of surprises – unpleasant for some, gratifying for others.