In assessing the facts as I now see them – and I see no opportunity for surprises to jump out of the woodwork – I believe it is inevitable that we shall see a short, sharp conflict in Ukraine and potentially various other parts of the European/Russia border areas within three months from now (last few days of 2021). Within a few hours or days, and the world at large may not even be immediately aware this is happening, parts of Ukraine may be reduced to rubble and its armies (along with any Western forces embedded with them) totally destroyed – without a single Russian boot crossing their own national border. I suspect that all European airbases shared with US forces will also be taken out and all NATO Command and Control facilities destroyed – rendering any retaliation by the West impossible (without going nuclear). And, depending on the decision just mentioned not being taken, it may all be over before you know it even happened. Russia will be secure – for ever. The West will have no alternative but to remove what is left of its military forces away from Russian borders (the US forces being returned to their own country to take part in its ultimate demise of self-inflicted destruction). If, on the other hand, the humiliation for the West is so severe that they decide to end it all by going nuclear, the only nation to be utterly destroyed will be the US – and certain parts of Europe where Western nuclear weapons sites are located. Russia will take some hits but their superior defensive weapons will largely neutralise Western attacks before they arrive anywhere near Russian territory. The US has no similar defensive shield against Russian weapons.
It is now almost two weeks since Russia issued her demands to the West on imperative and concrete security guarantees to ensure future Russian sovereignty and safety. Not a word has been heard in return from either the US or NATO other than ‘Let’s have a meeting’. Well, the time for meetings is almost over. There is just one more chance, and it must all be settled by mid-January – Russia’s deadline. This non-response is fully expected by Russia, which is used to the West’s worming its way around issues without losing any influence-gaining opportunity, by playing for time. Russia knows this and is in fact fed up to the back teeth with Western mind-games and vacillation tactics. No more of that will or should be tolerated.
Russia also fully expects that the West will never agree to be so tied down by legal contracts of the kind that Russia is now demanding (since verbal agreements with Western powers mean nothing). So, this final backstop is destined to fail – and fail it will – I have no doubt. The West, and the US in particular (the rest are of little consequence anyway), cannot agree to Russia’s terms. There is no way possible for any agreement on the issues raised to be formalised. No way at all. Russia is fully aware of that. As, I suppose, is the US.
Is the US (and its assembled hordes on Russian borders) then ready to accept what will happen next? I doubt that they are to a large extent. They still live within their own delusional bubble of Western military might. A bubble that has been deflated time and time again, without self-recognition of those events – which are twisted by Western leadership into being observed as ‘victories’. How, is quite beyond my understanding? It must be somehow related to the concept that ‘we can’t lose’, and therefore every defeat must be some kind of win. That is some incurable depth of delusionment.
Let me tell you what happens next – some time after mid-January and possibly as far away as March, but unlikely to be much later – (and quite possibly even earlier if precipitated by some lunatic fringe – say the UkroNazis [venturing into LPR/DPR territory] or US PMCs [sitting with chemical warfare munitions direct from US labs on LPR/DPR borders] initiating a false flag chemical attack).
When it becomes clear that the West has no intention of providing Russia with the assurances it seeks, Russia – at a time of its own choosing – will act unilaterally to ensure those conditions cannot be breeched by any foreign aggressor. Russia has the power, the muscle, and the means to do that. Do not doubt it.
Listen to what The Saker says on that:
The biggest risk now is that the US Americans will try to talk their way out and just let the clock run down without ever giving a clear answer to the Russians. Deputy Foreign Minister Riabkov said this about that “we don’t need negotiations, we need security guarantees, and very soon”. The Russians won’t take unilateral action unless and until they become convinced that the West is not willing to restrain itself and offer any legally biding and verifiable security guarantees. The other side of this coin is that should the West not be willing to restrain itself and refuse to offer any legally biding a verifiable security guarantees, then the Russians will be free take unilateral action. In other words, the Russians are saying this: look, we will get what we want, one way or another, whether we do that by means of a bilateral/multilateral negotiation or unilaterally now depends on you. For us, either way is fine, and we will achieve our objective in any scenario. The key message here is this: there is nothing you, the collective West or the USA, can do to prevent that outcome.https://thesaker.is/clouds-on-the-horizon-open-thread/
In fact I may not need to say any more, not expecting people to take my word for this sort of thing, but when a deluge of sane voices proclaims something similar, people may take interest and give notice to the views expressed. And so I urge you to read these two fine appraisals of the situation…
‘Clouds on the horizon (OPEN THREAD)’ – The Saker Blog (you may wish to keep popping back their for further developments)
‘Washington Prepares To Fail In Ukraine’ – The American Conservative (also cited in the Saker post above)