…Too Optimistic

Fossil based energy resources have been a boon to the rapid recovery of the Russian Federation to its now prominent global position since that nation rose from the ashes of its predecessor late last century to ensure the continued intact survival of the great Russian peoples and cultures, spread so widely across just about 50% of the circumference of the planet at those northern Arctic and Subarctic latitudes.

Having said that, I have long thought that Russia is being overly complacent about its hydrocarbon resources, so it is welcoming to hear a senior executive in the industry say the things he does in this TASS report – shared in full below. 

A wise Russia should be, and probably is, bearing these thoughts in mind as to what path to take to withdraw its economy from being largely based on such resources.  While three decades of consumption may remain, as is quoted here, there may not actually be anywhere near that length of time in a practical sense.  Swift movement for change would be the wise course to take.  There is no time for complacency or a falsely elevated optimism.

Note also, that CEO Anatoli Chubais is talking exclusively about peak consumption in this report. Before there is a peak consumption for any resource, there must have been a peak production – since to make any resource useful to humans it has to undergo some form of production – after which there will be a period of dwindling or perhaps even of rapid reduction in supply. Making this issue an even more urgent one.

Of course Russia is not alone in that.  It is something that every nation on Earth must wisely consider – if they want some sort of future continuity.  Though there are also many other factors in play that will render any sort of continuity to be a rather difficult prospect for every nation, people and culture, as we all wander haphazardly and, it has to be said, still rather dreamily, further into this century – by the end of which our current world will appear to have been something quite unnatural, if any records of our time still remain at all.  

But back to today – read on…  or go to the original report on the TASS online page.

“Hydrocarbon energy sector assessments in Russia too optimistic, says Rusnano CEO”https://tass.com/economy/1223599

The global peak of coal consumption is estimated to be achieved in the 2020s, followed by the global peak of oil consumption in the 2030s and the global peak of gas consumption in the 2040s, Anatoly Chubais noted 

MOSCOW, November 13. /TASS/. The assessment of hydrocarbon energy segment prospects in Russia is overoptimistic, Chief Executive Officer of Rusnano company Anatoli Chubais says on Friday at the Horizons international corporate forum. 

“My overall assessment for us, for our country is that if you ask me in broad terms, when [the hydrocarbon era in energy] ends… this will be like in a popular cowboy saying – ‘When the horse is dead, dismount.’ So, is it dead or not yet? Certainly not… but It seems to me our over-optimistic assessments of hydrocarbons prevail over the meaningful estimates,” the top manager said. 

The global peak of coal consumption is estimated to be achieved in the 2020s, followed by the global peak of oil consumption in the 2030s and the global peak of gas consumption in the 2040s, Chubais noted. 

“The energy industry is talking now about the term named “the global energy transition,” which will take place in 20-30 years to come. Its essence is very simple. This is the gradual abandonment of hydrocarbons in the energy sector,” Chubais said. “The global energy transition and the worldwide de-carbonization is the deterministic trend,” he said. 

The fuel and energy segment is important for Russia, accounting for 20% of the economy, 40% of the budget, and 60% of exports, the top manager said. 

“The end of the hydrocarbons era means the end of dependence on Russia for Europeans, while the end of the hydrocarbons era for us means loss of a huge portion of the economy. We must react sharper and stronger in this sense,” Chubais added.

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