It appears that the stable relationship between coronavirus reported cases and deaths may be becoming less stable than it has been over the last 8 weeks or so. I expected to see by today a death count of some 300,000. OK, its not far short of that figure and by the end of the day may be much closer than now.
I will wait for another week or so to see if this is an aberration or something real, but the orange line in the total deaths graph has started to waver off track a little.
If this falling away continues then it indicates that the eventual overall death rate wil be something less than 10%. I’m not going to admit that unless and until it becomes more obvious over time. The data is what it is and I have no intention of arguing with it. My only reason for doing these updates is to combat the erroreous data coming from the so-called experts, many of whom still say numbers of 1% or less for the death rate when it is obviously far higher than that. I still think it will be around 10% when all is said and done, but that remains to be seen.
It is interesting to see that there are what appears to be a series of tiny and now obviously regular steps in the orange line. These steps, of fewer deaths, all occur at weekends. I don’t think there is any suggestion that less deaths actually occur on weekends than on normal weekdays but its cause is most likely a timing of data reporting thing.
For updated data, see: Worldometers Coronavirus page.