Well, here we are again. The last day’s sea ice extent data is in for March. Actually, it is for the first of April, which, since 2024 was a first leap year for the decade, all other years in the decade (except leap years), after February, have to be compared with the first day of the following month – for the comparison to correctly equate to the same number of days into the year. That’s just a reminder, which I have said through different words on other occasions.
So, how do things stand at this point? Well, not ideal for my theory (which I am not going to explain again, this month), but not in any way contradictory to it either. I was hoping to see a positive month end result – that means ice levels above the previous decade average for the same time, which they are not. Although not catastrophically so. This was always going to be a risk since I am only calculating comparison values for 12 points in the year, based on month-end data. And March is nearly always when the peak of annual ice formation takes place, with a consequent falling off from maximum build as a result. This year being no different, even though the actual peak was achieved later in the month than any other year on record. But since this year’s data has been always coming from behind (below) due to a very low start point, it was always going to be unlikely to catch up to match the growth of previous years. Nevertheless, 2025 has done remarkably well in maintaining growth in last month – except for the final week of March. However, this year has been the only year in the decade so far (and for most earlier decades) where the month has finished with a higher ice level than when it began. This was not enough though to provide a positive result for the month, the final day’s value being -0.053 (or 53,000 square kilometres less ice than for the previous decade average on the same day). See the accompanying spreadsheet. And that is another fairly insignificant value for an ocean ice deficit.
The good news is that since all four previous years of this decade, end next month in positive territory above the previous decade average line. Meaning there is a good chance next month’s report will show our first such average value for this decade. Followed by a string of further positives.
Notice I have adjusted the graph to now show the same number of months but beginning from February. Because I think this gives a good clear spread of the values. Note also that we are now in the Spring/Summer, six month ice melting period of the year.
My argument, made at the beginning of 2024, was that, in the current decade we would see an average sea ice extent level that was similar to or even slightly higher than for the 2011-2020 decade. At this stage, half way through this decade (as each month of this year passes), there is no reason to doubt such a result can be achieved. And that would demonstrate that the rapid loss of sea ice (especially occurring over the past two decades), has been stopped or even potentially reversed over the course of just a single decade. That would be, if it turns out that way, quite a remarkable achievement, and something to provide doubt, if not proof, that there is any form of climate crisis ongoing for our planetary home.
But for such a condition to be demonstrated, we will have to be patient. I am using these monthly calculations as a means for using some of that waiting time responsibly, rather than running around in panic or distress, like a headless chook.
It is high time we stopped worrying about climate and began to think more about how we are treating each other – and not buying so much useless junk. The only purpose of which is the valueless value of valuing ourselves and each other on what we have, rather than who we are.
Not Something Else 