I make no apologies about posting this information, because it is both interesting and it adds weight to my theory that we are past the peak of excessive Northern Sea Ice Recession and will soon enter the period of Northern Sea Ice Advancement. Which means we will no longer need to worry about ice loss ever again.
Take a look at this chart, which contains data I have selected to show to advance this theory. There is, incidentally, no data which would contradict that argument. It comes from the NSIDC Interactive Sea Ice Chart.
The grey area represents the inter-decile range values for the three decades 1981-2010 (the bulk of recordings we have gathered in the modern era). Statisticians favour the use of inter-decile data rather than plain averages since they ignore rogue values laying outside the 10% to 90% data range – as, for example, the rogue year of 2012 which has never since been nor ever will be repeated.
The year-long smoky blue line represents the average daily values of Northern Sea Ice Extent for the recently ended decade of 2011-2020, and (being an average) does include the data for 2012, pedants may be pleased to note. My theory concludes that this line is the lowest decadal average you will ever see for northern ice.
The incomplete blue line represents actual sea ice extent data for the current year. It is interesting to note that the line closely follows the lower percentile boundary for all readings prior to 2011. Is that surprising? Marginally. It will be very surprising if this line continues to follow the grey area closely for another two months. Whether or not that happens, when we take the values of the other three years of the current decade (’21,’22,’23) into account – I have not shown them on this chart, for simplicity, but you can see for yourself if you go to the NSIDC site – it will clearly be seen that they lay above (for the most part) the blue average line for the previous decade. And that includes 2023, the so-called hottest year on record, with ‘boiling oceans’.
Now, it has to be admitted that it is likely that the remaining six years (or 7 if you include this one) of the current decade may produce some values that are below the blue average line for the previous decade. My view of that would be that there will actually be few of those and that by 2030 we will be able to definitively conclude that Northern Sea Ice loss has stagnated – at the very least – and that from the 2030s the ice will begin to grow in extent.
I can wait. Can you? Every year that passes will either add doubt or clarity to the picture. And if it turns out to be the way I think it will go, that also adds weight to my conclusion that we are about to enter a gradually colder Earth system, more or less from right now.
How does that fit in with your own or your ‘gathered from other’s opinions’ climate change image?
Not Something Else 
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