There is so much to write about, making it difficult to know what to say. Which is why I have not been saying much in the last few days. It seems pointless to give views on situations that are not yet settled. Even though we know the eventual outcome is assured and Russia’s plan is on track for complete fulfillment. We just have to remind ourselves exactly what that plan entails, in order to see where it stands…
- Liberate and secure Donbass regions
- Demilitarize Ukraine
- Denazify Ukraine
I’m not sure, can’t remember, if this is included in the original plan or not but I think there is a fourth step
- Bring to justice perpetrators of war crimes
There has also been a drop off (from where I stand) in current information from the initial splurge of such news. I guess that is quite natural as the fog of war descends on proceedings. And yet news does emerge, often a few days after it occurred, and perhaps a little clearer now, for the wait. The only thing which has not abated is the plethora of continual lies from Ukraine and western sources, which I and I expect most of the rest of the world are thoroughly sick of – knowing it for what it is – which is an indication both of the desperation of the empire of lies and its sunken, bottom scraping, reputation among most other nations. The latter, I think, will be clearly demonstrated by a crushing defeat at the UNGA on April 7 of a US sponsored attempt to have Russia excluded from participation in the Human Rights Council. The US humiliated itself recently in that same arena and I feel sure it will be rebuffed again. A big club is forming (paraphrasing George Carlin – please don’t attempt to translate 🙂 ) and the west ain’t in it. The west has its own club of course – kind of exclusive – but their ramshackle clubhouse is falling apart around them.
Putting aside that aside, and back to the story, Russia’s first plan objective is still not quite complete. Which is why they are manoeuvring their small liberation force of only some 50-60 BTGs* to encircle and finish off the only strong Ukraine force still in existence – itself some 50-80,000 strong (initially) and comparable in size or larger than the entire initial Russian force.
* BTG – Battalion Tactical Group – a mixed unit manoeuvre group built around a battalion sized mobile infantry component.
These latest troop assessments, and remember the Ukraine forces held in a Russian cauldron west of Donetsk since early March are the only battle fit Ukie army units they possessed, having held the positions they are now trapped in, since 2014, came via a US expert and passed from a Sitrep on the Saker blog a couple of days ago. Anything west of that cauldron is only the scraps of the Ukraine army which, in all likelihood, would not present the Russian forces with much of a problem once the cauldron has been cleared.
The Mariupol situation is all but over. Testimony to that is the fact that Spring planting of crops is already under way north of Mariupol – DPR begins first sowing campaign in liberated farm lands of Mariupol – DAN (ignore the image – I may not know much about farming but I think no-one would sow crop seeds in a grassed paddock). Adding to that, is the story of a whole battalion (267 remaining) of Ukraine marines has surrendered in that city – A video of the surrender of 267 Marines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Mariupol has appeared – VZGLYAD. An on-the-scene-reporter tells the story differently – The military commander told how the Ukrainian marines surrendered in Mariupol – VZGLYAD – another good reason for not being too hurried to report events in this conflict.
I just want to include here a 16 minute video clip from an English speaking reporter – Patrick Lancaster -(don’t know his background) reporting from in the trenches with front-line forces of the Lugansk People’s Republic. Everybody should have a little taste of what it is like to be on the end of an artillery bombardment – even from the safety of your own home. From a link in the Saker blog.
I am satisfied, from what I have seen – not just what I have reported here – that Russia is still in complete control of the situation, even though it may be taking a little longer than they expected (I’m not even sure of that). And, when that cauldron is cleared, the further phases will begin in earnest. I do hope they bring in fresh troops for that. These guys already there deserve a break. They are heroes. Unfortunately they are likely to remain unsung heroes – except perhaps in Russia.