I mentioned earlier that I have been waiting for the commencement of the second phase of Russia’s Special Operation in Ukraine. It seems that time has come, and it will be a very different form of conflict that we will now see in operation. I cite the News Front article linked below as being the first notice concerning the change. It mentions a Russian Ministry of Defence briefing as its source but details of such meetings are extremely hard to come by in recent days. For the moment we have to trust that others may have better access than is open to the public. But at least we can notice the change for ourselves. And it is very different. I cite also the following RT article, carrying the same story. Both articles are dated March 19, 2022, which I guess we can take as being the beginning of this new campaign.
This marks a turning point in the conflict. To clarify that, let me say that I have not prior to this date (March 19), seen any visual evidence that could definitively have been said to be of the use of Russia’s new range of hypersonic missiles. That has now changed.
Before I go any further, let me also say that Russia’s main goal in sending its troops into Ukraine, that is to say its initial goal, was the liberation of the Donbass region to ensure the safety and recognition of the independence and statehood of the two new republics of Donbass and Luhansk. That has all but been completed and its total achievement is already beyond doubt.
But Russia also had other goals, and they were stated to be the de-militarisation and de-nazification of Ukraine. We must not forget also that Russia was, and still is, seeking legally binding documentation as to guarantees for its sovereign security. We must assume, though the west is trying to turn these events into a circus of anything but this, that these are also absolute requirements, on the meeting of which, the cessation of hostilities is completely dependent. Russian forces have already gone much further than to secure Donbass and it seems only logical that to finalise and ensure the satisfaction of all their goals they will need to enter and subdue all forces arrayed against them throughout the entirety of the Ukraine lands – unless capitulation and suitable agreements can be arranged beforehand.
Russia has committed only a token ground force into the Ukraine, tasked with accomplishing these massive objectives, without so far calling on any of its regular army units. The Russian Military Staff must therefore consider this is all the force they will need to do that. They have performed with exemplary skill to achieve what they have so far accomplished – and in a very short time.
If there is to be a time when decisive force is to be introduced, to ensure full victory in this theatre of operations, it is right now. Enter Phase 2 – The War of the Hypersonics.
The Ukraine military, its foreign advisers, certain foreign mercenary elements, and the US/NATO observers from the back row seats, have already witnessed (and all but the back row heroes have felt) something of the superior power of the more conventionally driven Russian weaponry – though I think not all of it by any means – tasters perhaps, because the nature of this first phase was such that extreme care was necessary in order to minimise civilian trauma. But nothing has been seen (before March 19, anyway) of Russia’s new family of weapons – nor its most modern-equipped army units. That, or some of that, is about to change.
If I say anything else it will merely be waffling, because no-one outside those who need to know, do know what Russia has planned – and they are, wisely, not fanfare trumpeting it. We will need to watch on, keenly. One thing is for sure… I’m very happy that I am not on the receiving end of it.
An early capitulation, followed by a detailed rooting out of the weeds from the garden …accompanied by the signing of guarantees, would be the best advice to give to the Ukraine government and their not so shadowy backers – before too much hell breaks loose.
Peace to all – on the right terms …and with the right priorities.