Despite losing the media war – which is where all western resources are concentrating, having no other visible play in the game – in the real world of shells, missiles, sweat and blood, Russia is winning (without any shadow of doubt), achieving all its stated goals and more, while Ukrainian forces, disarrayed by the destruction of their command structures and bases, are continually retreating, in panic and surrendering their arms where possible.
They have left behind, in selected cities, hardcore bands of nazi nationalists who will be prepared to fight to the death. Russian forces have not in the main challenged them, leaving them to wither and die or be mopped up later (thus sparing innocent lives of the citizenry). This is the Russian strategy. It doesn’t make for great reporting of victories but that is not essential to the Russian cause. What they are achieving, quietly and methodically, is the encirclement of up to a dozen Ukrainian brigades in a huge pocket (called a ‘cauldron’ these days) for eventual surrender or destruction. I’m sure that choice will be given to them. This is the bulk of the Ukraine army in the east of the country. I doubt the Russians will go any further west than the Dnieper river which makes a good western boundary for the Donbass republics and provides guaranteed water supply for Crimea. Good thinking Russia.
Incidentally, there are no reports of any action to the west of the Dnieper in the south so those early reports of Russian troops in Odessa must have been fake news unless those troops went north to become a relief column for the taking of the main airport west of Kiev by Russian paratroopers. That’s a possibility which I don’t recall any mention of. The troops pressing from the north to surround Kiev to the west are hurrying to join those at the airport I believe and ensure no possible NATO intervention there.
So, I think that is all supported by what the Saker has written in his latest update…
‘Day 4 of the Russian offensive in the Ukraine’ – The Saker blog
I also found a useful map on twitter which gives a clearer view of the situation on the last day of February… https://twitter.com/miladvisor/status/1498040991726686216
I don’t know who is behind that twitter page but they seem to know something of what they are talking about. Here is a larger version of that map…
I have just one other story piece from a source I am growing to rely on for stable news on this conflict and in general – RIA Novosti. This story is well told and makes very interesting reading, painting with some telling images a vastly different picture than that given in any western news rags.
This operation may not be over yet, but the next few days I’m sure will reveal some very dramatic developments and will see the remaining Ukrainian military facing problems that give them few choices. After that it will be up to how fanatical the mostly nationalistic centres in the holed up cities want to be.