Step 2 – Imminent Military Moves

Events have overtaken what I wrote below even before I could publish this, but I will leave it there as it is still relevant. The latest event? “Putin announces ‘special operation’ in Donbass” – RT …also, this from RIA Novosti – Putin announces special military operation in Donbas.

I am going to quote some of what is reported earlier by Mockba24, since I believe it is crucial to the announcement:

“In this regard, in accordance with Article 51, Part 7 of the UN Charter, with the approval of the Federation Council and in compliance with the treaties of friendship and mutual assistance with the DPR and LPR ratified by the Federal Assembly, I have decided to conduct a special military operation,” Putin said.

The Russian President stressed that the plans of the Russian authorities do not include the occupation of the territories of Ukraine.

“Justice and truth are on the side of Russia,” Putin said.

Also: ‘Putin called on the Ukrainian military in the Donbas to lay down their weapons’ – RBC

All that above, has occurred after what I first wrote today, below. It still matters.

So, Russia has made a decisive and irreversible first step a couple of days ago by recognising and committing to protect the Donbass republics. What next?

I have to admit that my initial reading of the situation was somewhat different, in that I understood Russia’s recognition of DPR and LPR (I still can’t bring myself to refer to them as LDNR – at this time, and perhaps always, a fictitious nomen) as independent states, was to be within their current borders i.e. the land they currently occupy. Which, while disappointing and perhaps untenable – with no discernable boundaries to west and north, seemed to be what was intended. That has since been clarified by both the republic leaders and also by President Putin, here – ‘Putin comments on borders of Donbass republics’ – RT.

My apologies for the image. It is from the NYT and so carries a western slant, but is the best (clearest and simplest) I can find at the moment.

This is very meaningful in that the whole of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (as specified in the new republics’ constitutions), are recognised as being within the DPR and LPR, ceding to them more than double the land they now currently occupy. This also means that all Ukrainian forces along the entire length of the contact line are now trespassing on foreign soil and can be treated as an invading army. They must be quaking in their boots at that thought. I am not sure this has yet sunk into the western mindset – or in fact that of the Ukrainian government. Doesn’t matter. There is nothing they can do about it.

These invaders will very soon be removed, especially as they have not ceased their shelling across the contact line, including some half-hearted sabotage incursions. There will not be many of them left to go home if they ignore any warnings to leave the territory – I assume warnings will be given – the Russians are not barbarians.

Well, Andrei Raevsky – The Saker – has written an amazing piece on all of this. Read it here…

‘The situation is about to quickly escalate, probably in the next days’ – The Saker blog – February 23, 2022

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