A Brief COVID-19 Update.

Today, as I forecast up to 2 weeks ago, the global case level has reached 4 million and I can now confidently claim there will be 400,000 deaths reported by May 22 as I also said some days ago.  First we have to pass the 300,000 mark on or around May 11.

The global trajectory of the virus still remains the same, allowing us to say with some, though not complete, confidence that there will be 5 million cases also around that May 22 date and ‘when’ that happens (there is no ‘if’ about it), two weeks beyond that date (some time in the first week of June) there will have been half a million deaths recorded – well on the way to doubling current deaths by mid-June.

There is no reason whatsoever to doubt that will happen.  Amalgamated Global data allows us to say that and there is currently nothing in that data to even hint at any change in the current course of the pandemic.  One in ten of every reported case of COVID-19, at the global level, will result in death within approximately two weeks of being recorded – which means the death statistics are 2 weeks behind the case statistics.  That has now become an undeniable statistic, no matter what medical experts or government officials may say (for whatever reasons they may have for denying it).  How else could I make the predictions that I do and see them fulfilled week after week?  I’m no genius.  I’m not even an ‘expert’ on this.  I just make observations on what the data is telling me.  

The situation is not the same of course at the level of individual nation statistics, but the many nations that are clamouring to get their populations back to work in order to save at least something of their economies (fruitless as that may be and regardless of any other consideration) should take the global position into account and compare it to their own national or regional situation.  That would be the wise thing to do.

I was going to write something on why it is fruitless to expect economic conditions to return to normal (‘normal’ being defined as things were 3-4 months ago) but I don’t have the energy or drive to do that just now.  In any case we shall see for ourselves over the next couple of months and beyond.  My prediction last year and in earlier years that 2020 was to be a very troubling time, part of the growing new dark age for mankind, which began several years ago now and will increasingly define this century, is turning out to be horribly true.  And I don’t think we have seen any of the worst of it yet.  Sorry to spoil your lunch, but you need to be ready to face it.  Nothing will be the same again.