The Virus, March 29, 2020

The death rate from The Virus has risen yet again today to 18%.  Some 57,000 new cases were added in the past 24 hours, 3,500 to the serious/critical list which still remains at 5% of all active cases.

I’m not going to add any more daily images of the totals, it’s pointless, and you can get the latest from the link below.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Almost two thirds of a million total cases since inception now.  It will be more than a million in just a few days.

I also calculated a death rate based on all reported cases to date and even that, a false picture of the true situation, comes out at more than 4.6% – much bigger than any official source would seem to care to admit.  Of course the frightening 18% figure represents the true situation at the present time although that is likely to be mitigated to some extent as time goes on. Hopefully.

4 thoughts on “The Virus, March 29, 2020

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  1. Which just goes to show how it’s possible to get statistics to show what you want. If we start with the number of people carrying the virus and we know the number of deaths, we can calculate the death rate, assuming the virus alone caused the deaths and there were little or no contributing co-morbidities. But we don’t know how many people are carrying the virus unless we test everyone for it and that’s impossible. So all we know is how many positive-tested people are showing symptoms, including dying. That doesn’t give us much at all at that point. We still don’t know the total numbers of carriers. Then we can measure how many of those showing symptoms actually died and that gives us the % of deaths from those showing symptoms, but that’s bound to be higher than the actual rate if we include all carriers, including the asymptomatic ones. There are many noted epidemiologists coming out and pointing this out, including there’s no way the death rate is 18%. And the other thing is that the pretty near total lockdown of society, if it goes on for any length of time, is going to cause far more problems than the virus (but I assume you know that already).

    1. Yes, much of what you say is true Bev, but epidemiologists are not statisticians and probably not even logicians. I pointed out in a post here -https://notsomethingelse.wordpress.com/2020/03/26/backing-up-my-covid-19-facts/ – the logical and mathematical basis of my statements, which I later found was entirely backed up by the people at Worldometers.

      You are wrong to say that the current death rate is not 18%. It is, based on current, ie. as at this morning, figures. The death rate has little if anything in relation to total infections, at least until the virus is over and all cases have been resolved. The only valid equation for determining death rate or Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is
      CFR = deaths / (deaths + recoveries)
      where deaths + recoveries will, in the final analysis, be the same thing as total infections, but not before that.
      Until that time, no meaningful death rate can be declared other than on the basis of known (not estimated) deaths and known (not estimated) recoveries – from hospital discharges. Those known figures, globally, and yes I know they bear little resemblance to reality, indicate a death rate of 18% – a figure that has increased 1% per day for the past 8-9 days.

      My only purpose in publishing this information is to counter the rubbish put out by such epidemiologists as you seem to support (ridiculous rate figures like 0.1% or even 3%) and I have clearly stated in each of my posts that I know the real rate will be lower than current calculated rates as more data comes in. But even calculating a death rate based on current known infections produces a rate of over 4.6% (try 30,500/660,000 *100), not 0.1% or 3%.

      I am fully aware that this is not the real picture but it is what the published figures reveal, not what we are being told by authorities – who seem to pick impossible numbers out of the air in order to conceal the real situation and avoid panic – and then wonder why nobody is panicking or taking any notice of official instructions. People need to know what the data shows, and what I have published is exactly what the data shows.

      1. The ABC news website this morning gives the confirmed cases in Australia as 4100 and the deaths as 17. I make that a death rate of 0.4 % at least in this country. I’d rather trust epidemiologists who know about disease, than statisticians who can crunch numbers to show anything they want.
        In the equation: CFR = deaths / (deaths + recoveries), people who have the virus, but who show little or no symptoms are not included, because unless everyone is tested we don’t know those figures. Add those figures in and the death rate goes down which is what epidemiologists are saying.
        death rate = deaths /confirmed cases is how I see it.

      2. Well, you are welcome to the opinion you hold Bev, but it is a rather illogical one and the reasons you give bear no relation to the facts or to reality. You are dividing a reasonably known quantity by an unknown or estimated divisor that inherently contains within it elements that also rightly belong in the dividend as well ie. all the future deaths arising from the current caseload). The premise is entirely false, at least until the day after the last case is closed. I will attempt to clarify that in a future post.

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