Here is something quite notable if you follow the ebbs and flows of Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
March 15th this year, because of the extra day inserted last year (a Leap Year) equates to March 14th last year in terms of the day number from start of year. This year has reached its current peak in ice formation in terms of ice extent, but hopefully this is not the final peak point for the month, especially because it is currently (and likely to remain) the lowest level if ice formation of any year since satellite records began. The situation, however, does have certain mitigating factors which may dispel some of the gloom of that low point. It is a position which I personally do not consider a cause of great concern for my theory on a complete cessation of annual ice loss in that region. A theory which awaits approval of the years as they now unfold in front of us (there being no available history to add either assent or dissent to that).
The points I raise below, should generate some interest in these phenomena. The accompanying chart, derived using the NSIDC Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph should be used as reference point for all of this.
First, because the scientific measure used to determine long term changes in climate (since climate is just weather over the long term), is to accumulate and average data over a decade. This practice tends to smooth out the high and low points to provide meaningful comparison against those averages of previous and subsequent decades. A very useful practice.
In terms of the current decade, the highest level of ice formation of all four years so far, occurred on March 14, 2024, while on the same numerical day of the year this year, which is March 15, 2025 (as explained earlier), the level of ice formation reached is not only the lowest for the decade but also the lowest of all records for the whole satellite era, covering the past 47 years. But overall, the years between these two extremes, maintain the average ice extent coverage to remain somewhere near (sometimes above, sometimes below) the average line for the previous decade – the smoother smoky-blue line.
In simple terms, this means that the extent of Arctic sea ice, throughout this current decade so far (now in its fifth year), has not differed appreciably from what was recorded during the previous decade. Thus maintaining my proposed idea (I have not heard of anyone else offering the same or similar suggestion) that the approximately one million square kilometres of increased melting of Summer ice witnessed over the previous decade (in fact, the same level of increase per decade, seen for the last two decades), has in fact stalled and will soon begin to retreat. The net result, taking place over an unknown period, of future advances in sea ice cover generally. Stretching eventually to an ice covered Northern Europe and North America generally, as the planet continues its cooling path.
That last statement is, I know, a huge prediction to make. But, of this, I know that I am not the only proponent. A great many climatologists, the honest ones, have long made similar claims. The difference being that I am suggesting – on the evidence I now see (which may change of course, much of the evidence being drawn day-by-day from future records, and therefore having not yet occurred) – that this is (or is likely to be) occurring right now (beginning this decade), rather than at some distant point several millennia in the future.
I am aware that this would be a remarkable coincidence, if proven true (by future time alone). But the stronger the evidence becomes (if that is what happens) would be a sobering realisation for a humanity, hell-bent on self destruction by its own hands, to form a change of thinking concerning the way we currently perceive the future of our planet.
Do not think… please do not think, as current ideologies tend to do, that there is cause for suspecting this new Earth’s radically different climate outlook – from boiling planet theory to a frozen planet at the other extreme – would in any way need to become a product of fear for humanity or the planet’s other flora and fauna. Nothing of the kind, either way, is to become either our burden or eventual extinction, as some nutcases want us to believe. The planet has never suffered unbearably hot or cold temperatures (nor associated effects of such), at least not in the past half billion years (which is all the reliable historical information we possess). At no time in that long period has Earth’s average year round temperatures exceeded around +30°C at the high, or +10°C at the low extremes of temperatures fluctuation. Yes, of course, many places on the planet exceed those actual temperature limits all the time, but we are talking here of global averages, not actuals, and the Tropics and Equatorial regions averages never vary by more than a few degrees Celcius, no matter the time of the year or whatever the global average may be. There is always somewhere safe to live and for existence to continue. Any statement to the contrary is simply fear-mongering by people or organisations with personal agendas.
There is one further significant point to be made about what the past few days have revealed, and that concerns the annual peak of sea ice growth in terms of extent. Most annual peaks occur in the month of March, and generally within the first half of the month. In only one year, I understand, has that peak occurred in the last week of February. That was in 2022, the brown line in the accompanying chart.
The latest peak date in the current decade occurred last year, 2024, the green line, on the date of March 15.
So, amazingly, or perhaps revealingly, that late peak has now been broken – by the current year. Struggling along beneath all the other lines, having begun the year close to half a million Km2 below all the other years, none of which deficit it has so far made up, is the blue line of 2025. That being the year’s current, but still very low, peak point at this point in the month (15th data, reported on 16th). Not only will this now be the latest recent peak of ice formation but it is likely that peak has not yet been reached. Not that that can dispel any of the disappointing results obtained so far this year, but the ice is still rising.
Generally, March always ends with less sea ice than was present when the month began – due to the onset of Spring melt. But this year may be considerably different. The low start to the month and the fact of a still rising trend beyond the half way point, suggests the opposite may occur. For just how much deficit remains at month end, and there will be some, we will have to wait. But I tend to believe there may yet be a positive month-end average sea ice result, compared to the previous decade and for the first time this year. Results can only improve beyond that.
Not Something Else 
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