It is to be entirely expected that there would be a few wildfires here and there across the nominally Temperate regions of the world, in season or out of season. I expect there are also instances of serious flooding, unusually heavy storm activity. Perhaps even volcanic or earthquake disruptive outbreaks as well as strong winds. But there is nothing actually unusual about this. Nothing to panic about and certainly no excuse for wild suggestions of geo-engineering to artificially alter things. This is all purely natural and has happened time and again, I suggest, throughout history. And most likely, what we are witnessing would be considered mild weather by anyone – if such there were – present through those really disturbed periods of the past.
We modern humans have grown soft as a result of long periods of fairly passive climate conditions, and maybe, just maybe, we need to toughen up a bit and realise what is actually happening to drive such disturbing weather as we seemingly increasingly have today. That, I know, sounds rather harsh, but it is real. A cushioned life, especially for Westerners, could well turn out to be life-ending before too long. I suggest if we want to extend our lives, we stop squabbling over territory we think is reserved only for our own kind of culture and learn to snuggle up amicably with those who live in safer zones (the Tropics mainly) until Temperate times return. If they ever do – which is unlikely to be within our own lifetimes, I suggest, or the lifetimes of many of our potential descendants.
Why? How can I say that so boldly and apparently with no heart or feeling for our apparent predicament in having to give up our cosy way of life? Well, sorry. I have to speak my truth. And there is no easy way to say it, other than like it is.
Ok, it’s not all bad, or may not be, looking ahead. But we don’t know. We haven’t lived through anything similar before. At least not in the times of modern humans. Let me explain…
What we are seeing now, the disruptive and somewhat dangerous weather (it’s not all that dangerous except for isolated instances and for short periods, if we can view it rationally) is the result of some seventeen thousand years of gradually rising temperatures. From around a little under 10°C globally averaged, to around 15°C (it may even go up to about 16°C, but I doubt that). That of course produces temperatures far in excess of 15°C. Perhaps in excess of 50°C in various places around the world. But it also produces temperatures as much below freezing as above in other places. That, as far as we know, has always been the case. And it is not climate change which does that. It is the nature of our planet. All climate change does is move the averages around a bit in the middle. Sometimes increasing, other times decreasing the ranges of temperature between the middle and the extreme. And it is those differences which cause abnormal weather conditions. Squeezing or extending the range of potential behaviours within the altered space for the temperature range within which they can operate [I’m not sure I have explained that too well, but it will have to do] with the maximum disruptive times occurring at the extremes, both high and low, of global average temperatures.
We are now – and this at least is known to science – at an upper extreme of temperature fluctuation. The last time we (or whatever life was extant at the time) were at the same point was around 120,000 years ago (that was called the Eemian period – and it was a degree or so higher than we are now). Following the Eemian peak, there was a ~100,000 year gradual fall in temperatures down to the 10°C global average at which time our own 17,000 year rising temperature period then began. This same cyclic thing happened at least several times (more or less) going back further into history. So, and this is the essential point to all this – which few humans (and I would say next to no-one in authority – though plenty of scientists, who have so far been mostly very quiet about it) are aware of, after the peak of temperatures we are experiencing now is reached (and it is my claim that we have reached that peak during this current decade), it is fully expected that another period of ~100,000 years of gradual cooling will occur. To repeat yet again the pattern which has been ongoing for perhaps at least a million years.
Before I admit that I could be wrong about the timing – time will tell – I want you to know (and I am sure many do), all that I have just explained is passing through time at exactly the same time (going back tens of millions of years) as a general cooling of the planet from the top of its climate boundary at around 30°C globally averaged (with various intermediary rises and falls of course) to at this time (when our mini-cycle of rises and falls is also entering a period of cooling) very close to ite basement temperature level below which it has never fallen (around the same 10°C, globally averaged). The planet’s long term average is actually a little under 12°C right now, with best estimates. So we have only less than a couple of degrees fall to reach that basement level. We had better hope it never gets to that bottom level but begins to rise again within the next few million years – as it always has in the past.
I said earlier – “Ok, it’s not all bad, or may not be, looking ahead.” – but I have painted a pretty dire picture. So what did I mean by that encouraging statement? Well, I know it has a different context but, whatever goes up must come down. And post our current peak, whenever that occurs (and I am still fairly confident it will be this decade), as the global temperatures begin to fall (and this will be a much slower process than any of the rises), the planet should enjoy a quite long period of much calmer weather. Lasting for at least 10-20,000 years, and maybe even 50-60,000 years is possible. Which is far longer than we (our predecessors) were able to enjoy when temperatures were quickly rising And I dare say they didn’t even notice the change across a human lifetime. There should be a great many human lifetimes of enjoyable human habitation on Earth to come – after the current disruptions have ended. So, be patient, and prudent. Don’t get panicked into unwise actions too quickly. I’m sure science will eventually catch on to the truth of this.
This is all my own work. I have not found it written anywhere else, though I can’t guarantee it hasn’t, and so I have no references to make – other than the previous posts I have made on this site, which do I think lend agreement with these thoughts. Some thoughts are included here which I have not aired previously, but they are all derivable from posts I have made in the past, over well over a year now.
I have just thought about the subject a lot. And studied the history, which few people seem to be willing to do. Do not expect climate experts to do that, or those authoritarians or alarmists demanding that you follow their instructions to take actions you now know to be inadvisable.
Of course, you may claim that I am not a scientist or even have anything but a rudimentary grasp of science. You may be right, but when did that stop people from thinking and discovering fresh ideas?
Whenever I write something like this I am always aware that I could have included much more information to fill gaps or to explain things better, but ‘time and space’, you know. It is not a scientific paper. It is a blog post. Make of it what you will.
Not Something Else 
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