Well, as far as 2024 is concerned, it is gone – the melting, that is – and the ice-building season has begun. But there is nothing new in that. It happens every year around this time.
There is only one matter of interest, how low did it go? Well, not as low as last year, at 4.280 million Km2 remaining unmelted ocean ice on September 11 (I’m not going to do the 9/11 thing again, although I suppose I just did). As compared with 2023’s low of 4.230 million Km2 on September 19. Although I suppose 50,000 Km2 is but a drop in a polar ocean.
I admit to being a little disappointed that the average level as at the end of the month (October 1 data, reported on Oct 2) for the four years so far of the current decade is shown as 4.934 million Km2 as compared with the previous decade (10 year) average of 4.989 million Km2 for the same date. But again, what is 55,000 Km2 in a polar ocean of millions. However, I have to accept that figure, which is still in keeping with my forecast of the prevention of further ice-melt expansion this decade. But I still harbour certain skepticism over the two periods of data collection outages, both at critical stages (end August and the low point), where there was no data reported for several days in each case. But it is what it is and has made little difference in fact. Perhaps it has even made things better in the long run. Who knows?
So, things appear to be still on track for a full stoppage of ice-melt expansion in the current decade, and it is still my belief that we shall see a retreat in the extent of melting – Ok, let’s put it in the clearest terms possible, the expectation is for an expansion of Arctic sea-ice extent throughout the 2030s (and onwards) leading to a recovery of all the lost ice coverage of the past few decades. That expansion perhaps even marginally beginning during this decade. But there is a wait to undertake. Six more years to go to the end of the decade. And it could go either way. I hope to be a bit more positive around this time next year.
One more thing before I go. The NSIDC charts are drawn based on the number of days of data at any point in the year, which is the only correct way to compare any number of years data (not all years are the same length). The vertical lines shown as labeled for the 1st of each month can, on that basis, only be correctly drawn on a calendrical basis (using the form of calendar best understood by most people), if the month divisions, the vertical lines, are adapted for the longest years – which are of course the ‘leap’ years. So, you will notice, if you haven’t already that, from March onwards, for only one year in four the data for the first of each month aligns exactly with the first day of the month boundary. For all other years, it is the data for the second day of the month which abutts that line. I prefer this archaic spelling of ‘abutt’. The common spelling, ‘abut’, always seems incomplete to me. And since spelling is a personal preference (not to be confused with illiteracy) I go with my own.
Coincidentally (and I always find this quite amusing, though it is of course correct) the end of the year vertical boundary is only ever reached by that one year in four. The rest finish a day early, though on the same date 🙂 How strange we humans must appear, to any other really intelligent species who may observe our ways, that we consider such anomalies to be entirely acceptable.
Not Something Else 
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