I am always aware that my writings never come out just the way I would like them to do. They never quite explain things as clearly as I would wish. Leaving me with a kind of sinking feeling as to whether anyone might understand what I am trying to convey. So, as a kind of fumbling apology for my previous post, as legitimate as I know it to be, I want to explain how it was I came to put the ideas expressed there, to paper, so to speak.
Yesterday, and by chance, I came across, and watched again, the 1986 movie based on the 1980 (both dates approximate) book of the same name by Jean Auel – The Clan of the Cave Bear. A fascinating, if hollywood influenced rendition, with the added perk of once again seeing a young Daryl Hannah in the lead roll of a stray Cro-Magnon female encountered and taken in by a migrating tribe of Neanderthals. I thought to myself, “I know this era”, perhaps far better than I did when I first saw the movie. And this is not meant to be a critique of that art or this particular instance of it. I just used the experience to fit into and build on the image I have of world and climate history.
While never precisely stated, to my knowledge, this story must have been set between 20,000 to 50,000 years ago, as this is the only period when Cro-Magnon (early modern humans) and Neanderthals could have met. And it would have more likely been toward the 20,000 era than earlier, because that was the time where the Cro-Magnons were becoming more dominant in Europe and Neanderthals receding and possibly migrating.
I have to say that I am no expert on these things, and so you should view what I say here from the framework of your own personal knowledge. But much of this is easily verifiable today online – at least for those of us who have avoided or escaped the FB and X pitfalls for the unwary.
And so, we can identify that these early humans – not the earliest by any means – traces of hominins have been found dating back quite a few millions of years – lived in conditions which we ourselves are about to experience for the first time since our civilisation began. A period of increasing cold (for approximately 100,000 years) reaching down to the equally coldest conditions ever experienced on Earth. The lowest Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) of around 10°C our planet has ever known. Will we survive as well as our ancient predecessors did? It is doubtful if our current food animals will. And there is no current wild life to cull any more. We killed all of them off to provide pasture and safety for our own feedstock. That was just a passing thought – I did not intend to say that.
That blessed period of global warming (while still trend-wise cooling) starting around 20,000 years ago and leading to modern civilisation will soon be possibly 100,000 years down the track. Enjoy it while you can. There have historically been brief, weak periods of warming within the 120,000 year cycles. which generally consist of 20,000 years of warming followed by 100,000 years of cooling. We might hope for such warm periods, but they are not guaranteed. And the long-term trend of planetary cooling must inevitably reverse itself at some stage and begin rising again (as it always has), but that could still be millions of years in the future.
Of course, there is still hope for the survival of humanity, a slide down to a GMST of 10°C does not mean there will be ice everywhere. Some locations, between the Tropics 30° North to 30° South will remain much the same as they always have been. Just that the ice covered area will be much closer, North and South of those regions. Don’t forget that the tropical zone was where human civilisation began and, when the ice began to recede, was from where civilisation spread to most other areas of the world. Who is to say that this was the first time such a spreading has occurred. And will it be the last? Contrary to general opinion, we need worry only about our own time. Who knows what the planet will look like in potentially hundreds of millions of years? It is none of our business really.
Again, I am well aware that this is inadequate. But it will have to do.
Not Something Else 
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