A Brief, Explanatory Visit to Sea Ice

So, since my last report, some – not unanticipated – but unexpected results have occurred. No applecarts have so far been turned over and no matter what goes on during the remaining days of August, none will be.

2024 has decided to take the bit between its teeth, as they say, and become a little headstrong (with visions of competing with 2012). That still remains to be seen of course and whether it does make such a bolt or not, it will make no difference to overall averages. I did say earlier in the year that one such escapee year should be expected at some point in the decade. I am not at all sure yet, that this is actually such a year.

So, let’s start at the July average. At the end of July, Day 214 of the year and marked by the vertical line labelled 1 Aug in the NSIDC chart, the average level of sea ice for the decade 2011-20, shows as 6.610 million Km². The average for the 4 years so far, 2021-4, of the current decade, turns out to be 6.658 million Km². So we have a small but marked decrease in ice melt to the end of July as compared with the same time across the previous decade. I expect to see a similar margin of retreat from disaster to show at the end of August.

I included the 2012 track in this chart because I was going to say other things also, but I think I have said enough here. Wait and see what picture emerges over the next 22 days. I am confident that whatever it shows, it will not be catastrophic. Other catastrophic things may happen, unconnected with climate, but this will remain stable throughout.

All of this is in line with my prediction that heady flow towards increasing ice melt demonstrated by the previous two decades, has been stopped and, if anything, has been slightly turned back on its track.

I’m sure there are enough itchy bottoms of climate calculators and reporters, jumping around in their chairs with their models and theories desperate to report yet another potential catastrophe, but models and theories do not produce facts. I build my case on facts, produced as they occur, slowly, as the calendar unfolds, by the NSIDC. It is not glamorous or exciting work. But, over time, it produces real pictures. Images which cannot be denied by the lurid projections of computer models.

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