There are moments in time which can be described as ‘pivotal’. Are we now reaching one of them?
The current situation in Ukraine has been described by some as an ‘impasse’. I don’t see it that way personally but since some have called it as such let’s have a closer look at what is happening and what might be done to alter things one way or another. This is not an in-depth enquiry. I don’t kid myself that I am in any way an expert on the subject, but reasonable opinions can be built from that which is either known or of which there is some evidence moves are being considered by involved parties.
So, to begin with, what do we observe today? Well, we know that there is supposed to be what has been described as a ‘Ukraine Counter-Offensive’ ongoing, and we observe that this had the same effect as a ‘damp squib’. We see that the battle lines continually move back and forth by a kilometre or two in various places from time to time, with regular change of ownership of a few minor settlements occurring. The only other change is that the forces of Ukraine are much poorer in almost every aspect than they were before the operation began. Russia too is apparently, according to such reliable video as is available, losing both men and materiel faster than at in earlier phases of the conflict but also has a very favourable loss ratio against the enemy and is, in any case, able to offset such losses as it has on the front lines by successful destructive strikes deep into the interior of Ukraine.
We can therefore, as a general summary, declare that everything is much the same as it was after the last regrouping of Russian forces to the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson area, which occurred in November of the previous year, 2022. Geopolitically things have changed, most recently with the ending of the always suspicious and entirely unfair grain deal – which has opened up a further contestable area, the Black Sea. I will not discuss the geopolitical aspect further since all these things are in the available news streams and therefore under endless analysis. Of more interest is the fact that nothing much at ground level has moved for around eight months now. I guess that goes some way to understanding why some see this as an impasse – which it would be if that was all that was going on. Or if the more or less static nature of the front were unplanned, or unalterable. The Ukraine Counter-Offensive has signally failed to live up to expectations and they clearly have nothing left with which to make it any different. Their backers also have no armaments to supply them with which would not dramatically alter the nature of the conflict and apart from a few hot-heads I think they see the grave risks they would be taking if they took such action.
It was also in November of last year that I spoke of the apparent ‘impasse’ situation, and I quote…
“So, … why would Russia want to pointlessly continue hammering away, twice outnumbered by the enemy on the previous Kherson front line, in the way they had been doing since March? Albeit with minimal casualties while inflicting meaningful and debilitating casualties on the enemy in both men and materiel. Also knowing that until they are ready, and that seemed an unlikely event on that local front, they would never be able to press forward with sufficient force to gain meaningful advantage towards their given goals. It was likely to never happen due to cost factors. In fact it did not make any sense to do so.”
Hallelujah! At Last a Sane Appraisal of the Kherson Affair …and more… – Not Something Else – November 14, 2022
Since that time, Russia has redressed the force imbalance by recruiting fresh forces, built strong defences along the entirety of the combat line from Kherson all the way to Kupiansk, far to the north in the LPR region and close to the Russian border. They have, since that time, sat patiently behind that strong defensive position, venturing beyond only to procure more forward positions and, of course (who could forget?) to recover (actually take for the first time from the invading enemy) the former city of Artemovsk (the Ukraine Bakhmut).
That in itself would be sufficient not to refer to this situation as an ‘impasse’, but it was also a planned move which reversed the need for Russia to ‘pointlessly hammer away’ at the not inconsiderable Ukraine wall of defences built over the previous 8-9 years, in order to simply gain ground (although the ground was theirs to gain), simply handing that need for land-grabbing over to the Ukraine forces. A need which the Ukrainians and their backers accepted with delight but which has actually now broken two complete armies – the remainder of the Ukraine army and also a NATO trained and equipped army, both of which were salted and peppered by various groups of misguided adventurers from around the world but chiefly Europe, and a smattering of actual NATO presumably volunteers to train, guide and man the esoteric modern ‘wonderwaffle’ weapons provided by the west and destined, but ultimately to dismally fail, to subdue the Russians (who have made a sport – with appropriate rewards – out of neutralising them).
So, there we are. The apparent impasse has been of great benefit to Russia (and a painful time of regret – though I suspect that has not yet fully sunk into the communal psyche – for the Ukraine and its partners).
And how has Russia spent its free time during those 8 months of what they describe as ‘active defence’? In increased vigour, productivity, and success, both economically and materially, while also continuing its unabated geopolitical endeavours on many fronts – with an emphasis on the aspects of military readiness for the next stage. Next ‘stage’? Of course. This has not been about Ukraine becoming ready for a peace settlement, as many pundits are proclaiming and clamouring for. Russia would welcome a settling of the matter. She gains no joy from the continued conflict, nor in suffering the deaths – though relatively few in comparison to the other side – of her sons and daughters in such pointless and unnecessary conflict. ‘Pointless and unnecessary’, I hasten to add, in that it could have been entirely avoided if the west had not been so determined (or blessed with even limited foresight) to see Russia suffer and fall. I wonder if that position has changed in any observable way now those evil goals have so dismally failed, revealing the west as an impotent vagabond group of miscreants (I am utilising kindness and understatement in the forming of that description)?
Russia is ready – for peace or conflict – whichever direction the west chooses. Unfortunately I believe the west, already known as ‘agreement incapable’ is being revealed as also ‘peace incapable’. Peace, at any rate, as meets the requirements laid down by Russia as being the minimum it will accept. As I said in a recent article, some cessation of hostilities could be arranged between Russia and Ukraine, I feel sure – when Ukraine is ready to accept Russia’s terms. But this is no longer what the conflict is all about. This is between Russia and NATO – at NATO’s own instigation. All without NATO or any individual associated country declaring war against Russia. Nor, it has to be said, has Russia declared war against any other country, including Ukraine. For those two countries this is simply a territorial and population security matter. The fact that Ukraine is led by an ideologically evil government (courtesy the US) which stands in the way of resolving the matter amicably, has little bearing on the peace prospects, since that would be easily remedied by elimination of the problem parties and restoration of a government offering sanity. I am, please note, not suggesting Russia should arrange such elimination (or replacement), but you know, the people of Ukraine also have the right to determine who should make important decisions for them – and by now I reckon many of them will have seen enough of what nazi doctrine is all about.
None of that approach of course, appears in the western playbook. This is just an as existential conflict for the US and NATO as it is for Russia. I thank whatever gods or powers there may be that, in this case at this time, Russia holds all the cards to settle this in favour of the world at large. I sleep well at night in that continued reassurance.
So, don’t expect there to be any peace moves arising just yet. Someone has to be beaten into almost non-existence before that will happen, and you know who I favour in that task. I see that as being almost inevitable, unless some miracle occurs and, it has to be said, I do not believe in Santa Claus or the Tooth Fairy. There is potential for a great many people to be hurt in the process. It may be that some sample events would suffice to bring about the right conditions – say the flattening (elimination) of London and/or Washington. That would certainly have a sobering effect – and there is a precedent. A little application of Karma may go a long way here. There is no reason for everyone to die. Not that that is feasible or even likely even in the event of a full two way (or three way, or more) incident involving fissile material. I believe Russia, at least, perhaps China also, has enough effective deterrent to neutralise any incoming warheads to their territories before they actually detonate*. The west has no defense against such attacks whatsoever.
* It depends of course on what happens when those stricken carrier missiles (or their payload) hit the ground or enter the ocean. Do they explode anyway? I have no data on that. But there is a whole lot of ocean and some enemy landmass to cover before they reach their target location. Has anyone considered that?
But all that is ahead of us. I think something much more decisive must first occur on the ground. I believe Russia is ready for that and will in fact be the pre-emptive force to trigger it. The waiting must be almost over.
Back in November 2022 I signalled what I think is necessary in order for Russia to bring matters to a head and it is with some satisfaction that I see events pointing to something along those lines being prepared or prepared for. The apparently endless banging of heads against defensive walls must take second row to the new paradigm.
I suggested that instead Russia should open a new front in the north, take Ukraine, initially east of the Dnieper, in the back – where there are no defensive lines to overcome. Quoting from my own work, here is some of what I said…
…one or more totally separate fronts should be opened, this time with a numerically superior force to penetrate – with all the air and artillery, naval launched missiles, etc. in full support – deep into the interior of Ukraine, driving south to liberate all regions east of the Dniepr river, and taking the current eastern Ukraine defences in the rear, then crossing the river, driving west to Transdniestria and south to eliminate Ukraine forces (which will inevitably be mostly foreign nationals) and free north Kherson, again from the rear, and clearing Odessa and south-western parts.
This is the minimum essential victory for Russia. Then, where it goes from there is up to the west to decide. Play or fold. Either way the result will be the same. A decapitated west and a new secure world order centred on Eurasia. Western institutions abolished or reformed with impartiality as key.
I suggest that if there is to be only one new front, it will originate from and cover the Chernigev and Sumy regions, bypassing, cutting off, starving and reducing Kharkov over time. If there are to be two new fronts, and believe me Russia has the capability to do this, then the other one should cut off all western resupply from eastern NATO nations. It would not need to do anything more than that, and possibly act as a plug in the bottle to prevent any unlikely NATO incursion. NATO leadership would have, in any case, probably been removed beforehand.
From the same article as referenced earlier
When I wrote that quote there was no suggestion the Wagner group (if that entity still exists – although the fighting force certainly does, and has been recently moved to a relevant area) might be freed up to probably participate in the anticipated action – if it actually materialises.
There are other signs too that also point to this being more than a probability. First the Ukrainians themselves have recently transported all their industrial infrastructure from the Sumy region further west toward Lvov. Then they have, and continue to unsuccessfully attempt, to deny Russia a major east-west road south of Belgorod to the Russians by some sort of half-cocked incursion. I’m sure they see something coming at them from that direction. But of course they have no troop reserves or hardened defences to prevent such a move.
And then there are certain interesting Russian moves. It has been noticed that Russia has been shuffling its most experienced combat generals, some of whom have mysteriously disappeared. Where to? Russia somewhere has a hidden army. Will they lead it in a northern invasion of Ukraine? Back in March this year the Russians completed their Spring annual recruitment. So these recruits are fully trained now. I’m not suggesting they would be used as an invasion force. That would be disastrous, and Russia just doesn’t do that – in spite of the western reliance on the ‘meat wave’ philosophy. Russia also earlier this year admitted to gaining I think it was something like 150,000 contract volunteers. Many of these would be men with combat experience which could form the core of an invasion army, stiffened by hardened assault units. I have to thank Military Summary Channel for some of the timely information above, and for their dedication which keeps me daily (sometimes twice daily) informed on this subject.
I don’t, and obviously cannot, suggest that any of this will actually take place. But it does provide great backup to my earlier thoughts from late last year. And I would not be at all surprised if, sooner rather than later, and within the next 8-9 months, we do not see such or similar events taking place and resolving this matter – at least on the battle field.
An impasse is a situation where no viable intervention is seen. For the west this may well be an impasse. But Russia has seen and actualised or prepared for such an intervention. It will matter little, and perhaps provide some advantage, that the enemy knows it will be coming – somewhere, sometime.
Not Something Else 