The west gloats and smirks at the advances and apparent successes of their nazi hordes in Ukraine, but without solid reason. What have they actually achieved? They have retaken a few small towns, now mostly ruins, a whole lot of fields, many of which are even now turning to mud, and some large areas of dense forest, most of which they have to clear of their own mines and some of Russian mines. But nothing of strategic value. Oh yes, and many bridges which they themselves mostly blew up. In making those dubious achievements they have suffered casualties among their forces, of many thousands dead (many of whom would have never seen a Russian soldier through the sights of their weapon, much less fired on one) and an even greater number of wounded. Also hundreds of armoured fighting vehicles and other weapons have been destroyed, plus storage and repair facilities and HQ Command units – all just in the last two weeks of September and first few days of October.
And what of Russia?
Well, in order to understand what Russia has done, all of which is carried out meticulously to be within the legal guidelines of international law as clearly laid down in the UN Charter*, we must look at a force comparison. And it is necessary to compare only ground forces since that is the only way to take territory from the enemy. You can’t achieve victory from the air, the sea, or by riding a missile to its destination.
*The west disputes this of course, because what they refer to as international law is actually their own set of rules – also known as the rules based order. It is in almost the same way that they still declare adherence to the One China policy over Taiwan – which simply means that the ‘One China’ they envisage, is not the same ‘One China’ as the ‘China’ actually led by the Chinese government. All this is done to hide the fact that everything they say is a lie, but done in a way which preserves, in some warped way, their personal integrity (assuming they have any).
I have always maintained that Russia committed to the Ukraine Special Operation no more than 80,000 volunteer contract soldiers and units of the National Guard plus perhaps some 30-50,000 local militia of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, for some 110,000 ground troops in total. Whether that number includes what are known as the Wagner Group and Akhmat forces, I know not. So I am prepared to accept the figure often quoted by others of some 200,000 in total, because there have been further recruitments, especially among those special forces. In any case, it is unlikely that with constant swapping-out of weary units for rest and recovery, there are more than half of those forces on the front lines at any time. And Russia has, by judicial military decisions, managed to preserve the size, integrity, and battle worthiness of all its units, suffering at last count less than 6,000 killed Also many of the wounded have, through excellence of care, been able to return to active duty. It is a very different picture on the Ukraine side.
The original Ukraine forces stationed in well prepared positions at the start of the operation, stiffened by a large contingent of specifically nazi units, were said to be anything from 3-500,000. Few of those original units would now be around and breathing. It was said that up to about a month ago Ukraine had suffered something like 200,000 casualties. If we conservatively estimate the dead at 60,000, that would account for stories of hospitals filled with wounded soldiers throughout the whole of Ukraine. It would also mean that only 1-300,000 of that original fully trained cohort remain. We know that Ukrainer has undergone four levels of conscription since the beginning, taking increasingly young and old men and even women into its ranks and many of those recruits have received only the most basic of military training. Estimates of the forces facing Russians on the eastern and southern front lines are some 300,000 of these troops, which also include a smattering of foreign mercenary forces (which I read somewhere – take that for what it is worth – comprise some 75% of forces engaged in the Kharkov region counterattack over the past two weeks). Incidentally, since the Ukraine casualties in the last two weeks of counter-attacks have been given as some 40,000 dead (it’s a meat-grinder out there) due to them having been drawn out of their cosy trenches and ripe for mowing down by aircraft and artillery, there must have been between 350-400,000 at the start of the attacks – or something like the same number as back in February (though of largely inferior quality).
This disparity in size of forces, together with the attacker’s choice of where to strike, having gatherd overwhelming numbers locally, is the only reason why Ukraine is appearing to enjoy so much success. That cannot and will not be allowed to continue for much longer.
Russia has been holding on with exactly the right tactics – giving ground where necessary, and when pressed by overwhelming force, but preserving life and unit integrity (very few casualties) – to fight again a little further back (while still advancing in other areas of course). They can not do that any more without losing what is now, since today, October 5 (on the battleground), new territory of the Russian Federation.
It has to stop here, and now.
Are the conditions right? Pessimists might say no. But I have always maintained that Russia knows what it is doing and has the achievement of all its goals covered. The truth is that we don’t at this moment know whether the timing is right. Tomorrow or the next day we may know more.
But we do know that Russia today is more ready for the fight than at any previous time. The Russian spirit has once again been awakened. Take this quote from Big Serge…
‘A subtle, but profound transformation of the Russian socio-political body is underway.’Big Serge – Politics By Other Means – Big Serge Thoughts blog
‘Further Ukrainian advances in the east are now, in the eyes of the Russian state, an assault on sovereign Russian territory and an attempt to destroy the integrity of the Russian state. Recent polling shows that a supermajority of Russians support defending these new territories at any cost.’Big Serge – Politics By Other Means – Big Serge Thoughts blog
So, we must wait and see how things will roll out from here, but…
Don’t Panic, Russia. You’ve Got This Covered.
Why not read what Big Serge has to say, in full. I think you will find it interesting. Use the quote links.
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