What to look for in 2021? Well, there’s a lot to look for (none of it good – not a single thing) but I want to focus on just one thing here.
There will be war.
Unless one perpetual combatant is too caught up in its own disintegrating infrastructure, economy and society, to involve itself in external matters. Who could that be I wonder? Well it won’t be China (China is not a perpetual combatant for a start). The failed US attempt to embroil China in a crippling pandemic outbreak has backfired on itself, with overtones of Dumb and Dumber in what is yet to devolve into potential national economic collapse, augmented by its own soon to erupt internal, nation splitting, conflicts.
So, there will be war. It could be a US-China conflict (which would naturally drag into its maelstrom many other tightly or loosely aligned nations) but will more likely be a US v America conflict, leaving China free to assert its own sovereignty defence policy. That newly updated policy comes into effect on Jan 1, 2021, aimed at protecting China’s “development interests” – which inevitably includes Taiwan.
I will leave Global Times military expert Song Zhongping to explain what that means in his linked article. I’m assuming it to be a ‘he’, maybe I shouldn’t. It’s immaterial really, other than a slight embarrassment over my choice of personal pronouns.