Five days ago, March 20, I reported a COVID-19 true death rate of 10%. Today that rate has risen to 15%.
Let me repeat, only closed cases of a pandemic can be counted to determine a true death rate. Closed cases are those where the patient has either been discharged from hospital (or is otherwise known to be recovered), or has succumbed to the illness and is now dead as a result. All other cases included in the ‘total cases’ figure cannot, for obvious reasons, be counted in the result until they are also closed.
Officialdom prefers to base death rates on ‘total cases’ because that produces a much lower death rate figure. But it is false.
The true death rate has risen by 1% every day for the past five days. This is alarming. If it continues on that line, and I’m not saying it will, we will be approaching 50% deaths from COVID-19 in a little over a month from now.
You can keep track of this on Worldometers Coronavirus live web page if you are interested. Well, it is ‘live’ as often as they receive fresh data from world government sources.
The image shows current figures as of midday March 25, 2020 AEDT.
Now, obviously, as a rider to what I said above, deaths will occur rather more speedily than recoveries, so there is a time lag inherent to the data here which in the early stages will weight the deaths rather more heavily than the recoveries. In the longer term, as more people recover this will possibly tend to lower the death rate. But the longer the death rate continues to climb, the less effect this lag effect may have.
In any case, a death rate of the current magnitude will, with a case load estimated to be around 60% of total population, that is in the billions or even if it only turned out to be in the high millions, would be catastrophic.