An Uneasy Settlement

There can be no peace arising from the latest ceasefire in Syria’s Idlib province.

The new Idlib ceasefire buffer zone is a purely temporary measure that can not possibly stand for any great length of time, if at all.  Perhaps just long enough for all sides to lick their wounds and regather to finish the job that was in progress.  There is a certain inevitability to that that the occasional patrols by Russia/Turkey along the M4 and its 6Km each side buffer zone, will never be able to prevent.

“MAP UPDATE: M4 BUFFER ZONE AGREED BY RUSSIA AND TURKEY IN GREATER IDLIB” – Southfront

I suspect that soon enough the terrorists opposing the Syrian government will not be able to contain themselves to peaceful existence (what dedicated terrorist would? these people are not ‘rebels’, moderate or otherwise), and begin combat again to annoy their sworn enemy.  There are also no genuine civilians living in this area now or at least, with the lull in fighting, the few possibly remaining there will move either towards the Turkish border or into safe government controlled areas – something they have so far (the genuinely innocent among them) been prevented from doing by the controlling terrorists. 

If this imposed peace lasts for more than a month or maybe even a week, I will be very surprised.

See also what The Saker has to say on this.  An intelligent appraisal – and some not widely known facts.

“Erdogan loses the battle, but the war is far from over” – The Saker.

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