While there has been some concern raised over recent events in relation to the Caucasus region, I personally (although I do not claim more than rudimentary geopolitical expertise on the subject) do not subscribe to those concerns.
It is specifically to do with the often strained relationships between Armenia and Azerbaijan with particular reference to US’ clumsy, pointless, directionless, geo-political meanderings in that direction. I am sure US interests would love to possess some controlling interest in the region, with a view to upsetting the applecart of the more logically directed trading plans of local partner nations such as Russia, China, Iran, India, and others, who want to establish secure trade routes through the territories of both Armenia and Azerbaijan. And I think the narcissistic tendencies of Trump would have seen what he named personally as the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), as being presented with a gift boost towards that hoped for Nobel Peace Prize.
I don’t see it that way. To the contrary, it appears to me to have the hallmarks of a perfect trap for the US President. I will try to explain that, hopefully not too clumsily.
To my mind there are far too many pitfalls for this to achieve any success for the US and Western cause. For a start, the two central nations over whose land the action is to be acted out are firmly enshrined within the growing Eurasian community and neither of them are going to inflict damage on the other through the occasional border scuffle. And they can both take a rest from such activity now for a while – and ostensibly for 99 years (the stated length of the US lease), though we will see, I’m sure, long before that. There are a number of other factors which suggest to me that this may be a trap to lure Trump into something somebody wants his involvement in. I’m talking maybe the Putin/Xi duo of best buddies. For a start there is a lot of whispering (closed chats) between the P/X duo and one or both of Pashinyan (Armenia) or Aliyev (Azerbaijan) – all of which nations are associated with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and both Armenia and Azerbaijan have submitted applications to become full members quite recently. In addition to that, Pashinyan is set to speak with President Putin tomorrow (August 31 – I read that somewhere today), in China, and has also signed a ‘Strategic Partnership’ with China today. So it seems that a rather close-knit club is forming – despite the media published differences of opinion – and, drag in Türkiye and other neighbouring nations, all interested in the benefits of the joint ‘Belt and Road’ initiative of China and the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) – which brings in India and Iran, and there is an enormous potential for widespread success emanating from this region.
What has that to do with the US? Well, I can think of two points to ponder, and I will leave it at that. First there is the old adage – “Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer still”. Not that neither Russia nor China see the US as an ‘enemy’. They would rather have that nation, with all its faults, as a partner. At least on a trading basis, between equals (if such is even possible). I believe the US will be searching for all the ‘friends’ and ‘partners’ it can get, before too long – to keep it afloat – but on the partner’s terms. Also, but I think the first point also covers this one, the US represents a huge market but is its own worst enemy with its scatterbrain current foreign policy issues. Nevertheless, with a little ‘taming of the Trump’ and, if necessary, the elimination of those who drive the US to the excesses it has so far displayed beyond its own shores, everyone could benefit – and prosper together in some form of harmony. I feel sure ideas like this would have been passed around among the Eurasian community, and may just now be coming to a form of maturity. Is that too much to hope for?
Notice I have said nothing of Europe – the source of most of the world’s problems for a long way back into history. Best to leave that alone until the future is on a much safer trajectory. But they too are people, with needs and dreams. One day they will realise this too.
Not Something Else 
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