The Balance Has Turned.

What balance? Well, since I try to focus on the most significant matters of the day, I guess I must mean the balance in the most significant arena of the day. The illegal attack of Israel on Iran. Israel, supported by the Western nations who care little about the legality of any of their own actions, and chiefly the by US of course – a nation long deemed led by a psychopath, and now fully revealed as being so.

Actually, acclaiming the psychopathic nature of Trump, is being rather generous to the man. He possesses neither the mental capacity nor the acuity to achieve full psychopathy status. Maybe he is whatever the man-child version of that may be.

The matter of balance in this affair is also something that has been so far somewhat shrouded in fog. The opinion I have personally held up to now is that Iran is rather better placed to have little to worry about from either Israel or its guard dogs. This has been, so far, just another case of biting off more that they can chew. And the jewel in the crown of their supposed desires (they were never going to achieve regime change), the destruction of Iran’s underground nuclear production sites is beyond either of their capabilities. The US’ GBU-57, so-called ‘bunker buster’ bombs have a depth of destruction limit of at most some 60 metres (and that may more realistically be said to be 60 feet [~20 metres]). In other words no danger at all to the Iranian facilities, buried far deeper than that. That has to be confirmed of course, but the US always over-estimates the effectiveness of its second rate weapons.

So, while they can sting Iran – as Israel gets gradually turned into a Gaza replica even before Iran’s most modern weapons – so far not yet introduced – are used, as Israel’s AD capability dramatically withers, and the US naval surface fleet, placed like sitting ducks offshore from Oman (what a delicious treat for the Houthis and Iran – now guided by Chinese satellite data), will be turned into a submarine fleet operating from the bottom of the Arabian sea. Such a delightful thought – because that would end, or foreclose even before beginning, so many other potential disturbances to the global calm.

So, finally getting there, what constitutes this change of balance?

Well, it is all in The Cradle article below, but just briefly and motr than a little remarkably (for reasons given in the article) both Pakistan and China have now firmly placed themselves as backing Iran militarily in this conflict. And both are nuclear armed.

Pakistan has declared that any nuclear strike on Iran by Israel will be met by a similar response by Pakistan on Israel. China is clearly seen now as arming Iran and also has two major naval electronic intelligence vessels, I’m not sure if harboured in port or standing off-shore from Iran, but within the waters recently vacated by naval units of the US Navy. It may be from that source that Iran has so far been able to bring down five supposedly invisible US F-35 aircraft over their territory, capturing at least one female US pilot, to my knowledge. Or it may be that Chinese supplied Baidoo satellite systems now in the hands of Iran’s military, provided the intelligence for that achievement. Whatever, a very large contested area of Iran is covered by the intelligence provided by those vessels will forewarn and provide positioning data of anything the US fleet may elect to do. I would say that is a pretty big change and challenge for even a deranged Trump or his more level-headed generals and admirals to consider before launching any possible self-defeating actions around there.

‘Pakistan breaks ranks, backs Iran in war with Israel’ – The Cradle – June 19, 2025

But, whatever happens is going to happen soon. And if it does, then all bets are off as to what may result.

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The Balance Has Turned.

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