One of the biggest binds of climate change for modern humans is the apparent uncertainty of just how hot global warming is going to get. Well, let me assure you that all such cares or worries are behind us.
Breaking Constraints
How do I know? After all, I am not a scientist. That very thought brings me shudders and nightmares. To be so ordered and restrained in my work and views as scientists are forced to be, must be like living life in a straight-jacket – unable or un-authorised to contradict anything ‘sciencey’ that has preceded you, whether related to what you are doing or not. I think I intended to include the word ‘constrained’ in there somewhere, but I’m sure you get the picture. And scientists are not the only ones to be allowed to have views and opinions – though I think they think they should be.
While I, a general person of the wider community, can allow my mind to flow wheresoever it wills, and think thoughts or contermplate issues within or outside of the domain of normal human, mostly self-imposed, boundaries. That can sometimes be a painful process, as you realise that you may not possess the appropriate knowledge to take a next step. I have been there, having been brought up and schooled long before the advent of electronics and computers. But now I am not so constrained to the arduous journey of looking for and into appropriate reference materials – mostly books – whether real or online. And I have been onto the computer literacy trail right from its beginnings, when you had to know a bit about machine code to get them to do or reveal anything at all. And now, in these latter days of complete machine learning, there are seemingly no constraints to to the acquisition of knowledge. Well, there are ‘pay-walls’ of course, but what they hide from the uncoined (or those unwilling, or wise enough not to part with their coin) is mostly distorted trash news. Everything you need to know is freely available to the avid enquirer who is willing to spend the time improving their mind and broadening the scope of their thinking.
Glacials, Inter-Glacials, and the Unrestrained View
Anyway, to the point. Which centers around ‘The Holocene’. Which is, a current period of history known as an ‘Inter Glacial’. A period of warmer conditions which sits between two colder or ‘Glacial’ periods. The colder periods tending to be of much longer duration than the warmer periods. We have not (well maybe our ancient ancestors did) ever experienced a full glacial period of Earth’s history. Nor will we ever do so. At least not the ‘we’ who are living now. But our descendants certainly will. Our fairly close descendants, perhaps even a few generations from now, may get to experience the first frosty bites of what for much of the planet (excluding the tropics) will perhaps be a permanent ice-covered Winter for up to one hundred thousand years. Maybe with a lesser warming event or two bringing some temporary relief in between. That is the general pattern of climate change, which has been going on for long before we ever came onto the scene.
What none of us, now or for the conceivable future will ever see, is the kind of runaway climate change so widely advertised and warned about by the frantic manipulators among us. Never. Ever. The planet is not in a position to do that. It has to follow rules and bounds imposed by its settings within the framework of a much larger system of truly cosmic proportions. It can’t happen. Tipping points? Hockey Sticks? Fiddlesticks!! And we puny humans, latecomers to the system and of no intrinsic value (or danger) to it, other than within our own tiny minds, can do nothing to change any of that.
How do I know that? Why do you keep asking that question? It’s because I do the research, and I know the patterns (which most people are totally unaware of) which have held, repeatedly to a large extent for millions of years. Science has gone to an enormously large amount of effort in order to lay down the historical data from which we can learn of these things. That part, science does very well. They totally suck at telling us about it. Hence the need to go look for yourself. And those who control the scientific community are not beyond selling us falsehoods – for reasons of their own or from other pressures. First hand truth is always better than second hand stories. Thankfully the data itself is untouchable (I hope).
I will return to more deeply examine the Holocene further below, but first things first…
Timeless, Slow-moving Physics of a Star System
The next thing you need to hold firmly in mind is that nothing in the world of natural geo-physics (except for the occasional cosmic intervention – which throws all sorts of spanners into the works) can possibly alter the timeless and slow-moving motions of a star system consisting of large (and smaller) cosmic bodies such as planets and moons trapped within the unifying gravitational pull of a massive central star. Especially when such planets are themselves revolving around their own cental axis, producing their own gravity to attract a breathable atmosphere which can sustain life, and especially when that planet is tilted at an angle to its own revolutionary orbit around its central star as to produce seasons of growth and rest, warmth and cold with cycles of day and night, all working together in a dance of life and death, with fixed boundaries and limits to satisfy all aspects of life sustainability which (apart from said cosmic intrusions) is set to operate for eons – which is far longer than any of its living denizens would care to think about.
A safer and more stable system you could not imagine. And yet the supposedly most intelligent of such a planet’s living denizens insists that some small, barely recognisable, temporary, and natural temperature movement, operating completely within the system norms, is all their fault – just because some manipulative clown told them so. It is barely believable. But that is what we have going on right now on planet Earth. What does that say about us?
‘Dumb as Dung’ might end up being our epithet, unless we can shake off this applied delusion, and accept ‘normalcy’ for being what it is.
So, what is normal?
I can tell you. Its in the records. You just have to look it up.
The first ‘normal’ thing you need to know, is that the cyclic temperature change between glacial and inter-glacial periods can not exceed 5°C to 6°C of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST – sometimes referred to as GAST or Global Average Surface Temperature). It never has exceeded that amount. More than that, the upper and lower levels of that range do not change. They are at base,10°C (sometimes 9°C), and at peak, 15°C (sometimes 16°C). But never more than the 5-6 degree range.
The constraints for that situation rest entirely within the guiding pathway of the data itself and since we have fairly detailed data about the past 50+ million years or so of climate changes, it is reasonable to assume this as being ‘normal’ for that period. More particularly, since the data patterns swing rather evenly about a central mean (average), which we know has been determined, we can assume that mean pathway as being the norm.
What I said in the previous paragraph, relates only to our current situation of course. That being while sinking down to and being somewhere near the base of a much larger and longer cyclic period of temperature swings covering hundreds of millions of years. Charts are available to show that but I don’t want to go into that area due to time and space constraints, and the fact that we don’t have sufficient clarity of data to do so. In any case, that would exceed a hundred million of years into our past and likely the same distance into the future. In other words, not for us to worry about.
So, we have a line we can take as being our norm for climate movements, based on temperature and we also know the full range of values the data can operate within, either above or below that datum. We can clearly see where that is leading us – downwards – and particularly quickly over the past 5-6 million years or so. The falling line appears to have more or less stabilised now at a level of just under +12°C, with a barely visible rate of fall over the past 2 million years, and that places it just a little above the base level of cooling our planet has always operated within. That is a lot of ‘knowns’ which provide us with a high level of assurance that no surprises in terms of freak temperature changes await us in an unknown future. Our climate future is never going to differ much from our past. Not in any timeframe that we need to worry about, anyway. Is it a relief to know that?
Here, as a reference point, I include another temperature chart, used by myself many times before, which shows that cooling trend and, if you can see it (the end of the red line), the new stabilisation of matters in fairly recent times. Look at the pale blue line in the chart below that one for further and expanded confirmation on these things.
The Crux of the Matter, or Why Did We not Notice Reaching the Peak?
With no shame for the repetition, and because it is one of my favourites, I am using again the 5 million year chart, below.
Take a look at the feature marked ‘Holocene’ at right. And since there is nothing to the right of that, note that this is where we are today. It is also where we were 8,000 years ago, illustrating the slow movement of climate across time.
Also, please note the peaks of the Eemian and Holsteinian periods, and say to yourself: “It can get bloody hot today, but I’m glad I wasn’t living in those times.” Then, please glance at the top level of the chart and notice how, from less than 3 million years in the past, that was how things were most of the time. Then, if you can still stomach it, look back at the first chart in the previous section, beyond the 5 million year point and silently drop to your knees and say: “Thank you Mother Earth for bringing the coolness which permits me to live today in such relative comfort.” And I will add my “Amen to that.”
Now, please examine again, perhaps with clearer vision this time, the Holocene, back from the journey through time you have just undertaken, to where we are now. You will notice that, even at this scale, there are at least two peaks over the past 8 ,000 years. We will examine these more closely. But first, please note the very similar peak just to the right of the Holsteinian which, while it did not start from such a low point as our most recent adventure, appears to have a very similar profile. I am reminded of the saying of, I think it was King Solomon in the Bible, who said: “There is nothing new under the Sun.” Everything we see, even today, has precedent somewhere back in time. If we know history, there can be no surprises. And, whatever happened before, we are here, and the planet is still here, in spite of all that. And it remains largely unscathed by the things it has witnessed over the ages, and even the ugly things that we have ourselves done to it.
OK. I said this would be an extended essay, but I don’t want it to become too long. So let’s look for the Holocene peak, so feared by so many humans. Want to see it?
There it is, between the 6 and 8 thousand years before present markers, at what is labelled Holocene Period Climate Optimas. I personally think the temperature scal at left is a little out of place. It needs to be raised perhaps half a degree higher. Also, please do not ask me about the ‘Precessional Cross’ referencces. I have no idea what that is about. And I am not sure (and have no interest in looking at the moment) what period of human history is represented by the first block of that ‘optimas’ label, but the second block, which is slightly below the peak temperature, should more correctly be labelled the Minoan Warm Period which extended into the Iron Age following the Santorini volcano explosion.
It is absolutely clear that these climate optimas were the highest temperature points of the era despite whatever the ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming Hysteria’ mob may claim. It drew a smile on my face to see the faintly shaded ‘Projected Mini Ice Age’ at the end of the line there. This is not what is going to happen, and the charters were at least 10 to 15 years out in their projection of end of the modern warming period. I believe this is happening right now, and it will not be a piddling little ‘Mini’ ice age but the beginning of the one hundred thousand year reign of the next and so far unnamed (because few people believe it is happening yet) glacial period. At the point where the ‘Mini Ice Age’ is shown, there should be a full blue area similar, but mirrored, to the one at extreme left, with a label saying: ‘The Inter-Glacial Ends Here’.
Why did we not notice that the peak temperature of the Holocene occurred around 8,000 years ago?
Because we were not looking for it back then. Some charlatan fooled us into believing that was a horror set to confront us one day in a dangerous future. Shame on them. And since they have frequently repeated their lies, and continue to do so, shame on us.
What I am certain of, and this will sadly (because I want to say more) be my final point today, is that the ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming Hysteria’ mob’s vision of astronomically rising temperatures to the end of the century, is an absolute non-starter, the product of lies, and perpetrated by and on (let’s be kind) the foolishly deluded.
Have a nice day.
Not Something Else 