I can’t believe I actually wrote that seemingly, now, perhaps ‘epic’ question, but I did write it, back in July 2023 and used it to begin an article titled – ‘Has Russia Decided To Act?‘.
The main theme of that piece was in discussing what might happen next following a period of what Russia termed as ‘Active Defence’, which they pursued very effectively from well prepared positions – to which they withdrew in good order – after the ‘Ukraine Counter-Offensive’ of that year began, and which the western forces (it was now a NATO/Ukraine war) eventually termed as an ‘impasse’ which needed a Korean peninsula type ceasefire solution. Russia, of course, was having none of that and used the time well, to build up its forces and the nation’s war effort while inflicting heavy losses on the Ukrainians who were beating themselves to death against that solid Russian bulwark. In recent weeks Russia has successfully begun to advance along much of the contact line, regaining territory every day.
In my answer to ‘Has Russia Decided To Act?‘ I pursued various possibilities, including a reference to an even earlier article I wrote in November 2022 after Russia’s withdrawal back across the Dniepr to avoid the Ukraine threat to flood the Kherson area of by destroying an upstream dam – which would also endanger the nuclear power station located nearby. That seems such a long time ago now. At the end of the piece I suggested a solution I had advocated in November 2022 and hinted that in a further 8-9 months we would see something like that occurring.
Well, that 8-9 months has now elapsed, plus a few weeks more (forecasting can never be precise), but events are beginning to shape now towards what I expressed back in November 2022 – now some 20 months in the past.
That 2022 article carried one of my most flamboyant titles – ‘Hallelujah! At Last a Sane Appraisal of the Kherson Affair …and more…‘ – and as I said, is also referenced in the first link above.
Basically I suggested that instead of battering the years long in preparation front lines of the Ukrainians, suffering needless casualties, Russia should open up a new front in the North-East – around Chernikov and Sumy. Race down south behind the front lines – a largely undefended area – bypassing Kharkov (until later. It would need to be evacuated by Ukrainians anyway). Cross the Dniepr river and move on to liberate Odessa (plus all to the south) and connect with Transdniestria. The Russian Black Sea Fleet would be well able to support such a move and Russia, as it always has, would control the skies.
I was wrong about one thing. The time Russia spent in absorbing the attacks of the NATO assisted Ukrainian forces, markedly reduced that force to a shadow of its former self, with estimates of up to a million casualties (deaths + injuries) among Ukrainians and their supporting forces. And that, more than any new front is what destroyed western hopes of a victory over Russia – which has emerged as a dynamic and united, economically intact nation.
If that, when fully accomplished, plus demands for control of several oblasts west of the Dniepr – including Kiev – doesn’t serve to end the conflict, achieving all of Russia’s 2021 security demands, then there is always the final option. But I think Russia will, perhaps before the end of this year and beginning very soon, achieve all of those objectives. The west will be defeated. And if they won’t lie down and take it, like I said, there is always the final option.
I will leave it there.
Not Something Else 
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