I wasn’t intending to do another post today. Hey, I need some fun time too. But I just watched a new video by Gonzalo Lira. I am not always overly impressed with his work, though I appreciate what he does and the risks he takes in downtown Kharkov, but this is something else. You should watch.
There is a growing situation, and it is that of which he speaks, around the geographically isolated Russian territory of Kaliningrad which involves both Poland and Lithuania with a cutting of the only long agreed land link between Russia major and its Kaliningrad satellite. I have not so far been too concerned – this has only just occurred – but I have seen that this could become a hot point very quickly, in tune with the growing desperation of the US administration, which has proved itself incapable of solving its many problems by any other means than all out war – in which the EU/NATO bloc will have no choice but to join the US death-wish.
I will not describe the situation further because Gonzalo does that very well in this video…
He does a good job there but he is wrong I think on two points.
1. I am not saying Gonzalo is definitively wrong on this but I have no information (have not heard or seen such information, anywhere) that would indicate Russia has been rotating its military forces continually through Ukraine. On the contrary, it has always been stated that the troops in Ukraine, aside from local Donbass militia units, are voluntary units of Russia’s National Guard, the Rosgvardiya – i.e. not regular Army. Though I admit what is known is not always what is real. I have not been able to connect to the Rosgvardiya official website but Wikipedia claims they are a 340,000 strong force initiated in 2016 by decree of President Putin (so even only a small proportion of that force is currently operating in Donbass). Whether those guard units are rotating periodically I have no idea. But the Russian Army, which is fully trained and in possession of all Russia’s modern ground force weaponry (none of which has so far been seen on Ukraine battlefields), is still 100% intact and rated as the second most firepower rated force in the world (with the US first place ranking probably ‘bought’ and in my opinion undeserved).
2. Russia will not let the US get in a ‘first strike’ nuclear attack – whether or not Russia has excluded such action from its stated nuclear strategy. Remember Mr Putin saying “When battle is unavoidable, strike first”. Well, he fulfilled that axiom when he began this operation. And I think Russia will always be alert to US dirty tricks. And even if the US were to launch first, there is no guarantee that any, or many, of its ageing missiles would reach their targets. And then Russia, having vindicated its defensive capability (US/NATO don’t have one), which also includes an offensive component which would without any doubt destroy all US land-based Command & Control facilities, would have the choice of whether to take a clear run to wipe US/NATO off the map with its offensive nuclear capability. People should be aware that there is now no such doctrine as the MAD which preventively ruled out any such move last century. This is a new era …and Russia is ahead of the game while USA/NATO lag, miles behind.
You want to see something of what the modern Russian army is like? I don’t. I already know some of its capabilities. Watch this…
And don’t forget, while the US is seen as the backbone of NATO forces, its military units are scattered across the globe – immovably so, because to move them would mean the loss of most US empire outstations. The US military, being a mostly naval force, is also poorly equipped with mostly outdated and outclassed (proven by Ukraine conflict) 20th century weaponry for ground warfare. Whereas the Russian military is more concentrated (not terminally occupied with holding together a scattered empire) and is reportedly equipped at levels exceeding 80% with the best, battle tested, modern weapons in the world.